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Senior Advisor

This is the real point in the wheat market.

Here's a quote - and i agree with it. It is a fact.

 

The World Has Plenty of Wheat, So Prices Have Been Soft

 

"The cycle will turn back the other way as surely as a pendulum swings through its arcs. Global production has risen inexorably, but so

has world-wide consumption. In fact, if the world fails to produce another record large crop this season, we will have to delve into our buffer stocks. New records were set back-to-back the past two years, but global stocks were increased only marginally."

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Senior Advisor

Re: This is the real point in the wheat market.

But, the paper market really can't trade this truth - yet. And yet there's no disputing the numbers. I'll go as far as to say you CAN'T trade this fact at this time. SO, what knowledge does the paper trade have you don't? Speculation is a game unto itself that can only trade a short time period even though a larger and contrary truth has already been determined for the longer run in some cases.

 

One could say the paper market was in denial in 2007-8, in the run up to the Russian drought and so on. It is what it is. Don't worry about it. Just keep your eye on the ball, like an outfielder circling for the catch. If you're not looking you won't catch it. Simple as that.

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Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

Re: The real point in the wheat market is to bat over .300 and hit a few home runs!

Palouser:   I suspect you won't get "traded"  due to the savvy techniques used. Is that a Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle style of circling used in center field between innings when you are batting and hitting the home runs?  Keep up the good work. Dry yet and some frozen wheat around here.;-)

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Wheat prices to double this year?

We're going to need to change shaggys
name to curly with the rain he has been
Getting...radar been green most the
Day

Stopped at the coop after checking wheat.
Very poor stand.

BUT NO WEEDS

a couple companies offering deals on
Soybean seed on failed wheat. $41 a bag
Not
even a bu anymore, 140,000 seeds


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Senior Advisor

Re: Wheat prices to double this year?

You must have me mistaken with that other shaggy fellow.  Just started sprinkling here about an hour ago.  So far the sidewalk is almost completely damp.  I will add that we've received about 2" worth of thunder & lightning.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Wheat prices to double this year?

Getting real good at dodging these rains.  So far the most any of my farms has received is .44" and the least amount is .11".

 

Looks like another crop insurance year for my winter wheat, but it's harvested somewhere nearly every day of the year and we are "awash" so I'll be fine, right?

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Wheat prices to double this year?

No good shaggy Smiley Sad Out of interest whats your average rainfall there?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat prices to double this year?

Western third of Ks    Shaggy being on east side of that 1/3 --------  22-23 inches east  ------- western counties 16-17 inches    historical average.  --- close guess on those ---- Shaggy may need to confirm, since he is close to the Smokey Hill river he may lean a little higher.

 

 

I drove I-70 yesterday ---Kanorado to Quinter  ----- then 83 south from I-70/Oakley to Liberal(300 miles @).  Beautiful evening with scattered clouds building up and giving us what we would normally call spring showers with lots of sun beaming through and around the clouds.

I saw 8 to 10% of that area getting 1/4 of an inch and possibly 1 to 2% of the area getting 1/2 inch or better.

 

Most of my life yesterday would have been a normal spring day ----- not a rain event.

 

I saw a nice shower on One 80 acre field.  It was so good i could not see the weather channel reporter and film crew but I am sure they were there to report the Kansas flood.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat prices to double this year?

Been four years of below average precipitation in my area of nw Kansas. Got 1.7" to 2.25" in last 36 hrs depending on farm.

 

Still have chance at no crop insurance claim on hrw, .most can't say that.

 

Just got rained out here in South Podunk Country Iowa, just started putting on nh 3 been too wet, is again now.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Wheat prices to double this year?

Small town where I live just received another small shower about an hour ago.  Brings our 3 day total up to .87" here in town, unsure what was received out on the farms but we're slowly getting there.

 

Sneeky, according to a certain website (can't remember which one) my area annually receives between 25" & 27".  I'd question this or at least place me towards the 25" area.  It's safe to say we normally receive between 20" & 25".

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