Re: Wheat,the day before yesterday,tues.
I think holders of wheat o the PNW are familiar enough with the exporters to know they are in a strong position regardless of what 'information' they put out there. I noticed they were trying to ratchet down the basis on the rises in the market and drop the maximum showed in Chicago. Looks like they are giving up on that. The fact is that, like elsewhere, some of the lower elevation wheat is small, a lot was winter killed east of the Cascades and it is very unikely this will be an average production year. Last year was not really average either though I think mainly due to acreage. Sometime in the near future crunch time is coming is my guess.
If history is any guide Portland will talk about a collapse in demand a few times, warnings that we are over priced and then leading to the 'lime jello cottage cheese surprise' when they all go 'no bid' at the same moment by early summer to try and drive the price down and scare producers into handing it over - which is usually the gaurantee that in a few weeks the price will be higher yet. The issue becomes one of 'I think I've seen this before'. So, what can they do?
Meanwhile Merubeni (Japanese owner of Columbia Grain) is supposedly on the hook for many shiploads of beans they are sending to China 'on the come', not even knowing if the receivers will have credit when they arrive. Going to be hardball.