Wheat??

[Shaggy98]

I live in the heart of the winter wheat belt (if there is such a thing) and trust me, there will be big surprises when the combines begin to roll in a few weeks. Once the swing gets into Ok and Ks, we will see how much damage was done. Lots of brown spots developed over the last few days due to winter kill starting to show. What did survive is now showing drought stress. It's going to be an eye opener one way or the other, but if the USDA reports it, it has to be true. Right?

[Canuck5]

Thanks for your perspective Shaggy.  From this area, (Canadian prairie) not much can be said yet about the 2014 wheat crop.  Acreage will be lower than 2013, and so will yield - that's a given. But the magnitude of the change is still an open question.  Seeding is not going to be early.  It could very well, and likely will be, late.  Spring melt is very slow, and in some areas has not even started.

But as we all know, and as you point out Shaggy, nothing is certain until combines roll and that won't be until September here.

How much risk premium will the market maintain until the picture emerges?  With declining world production in 2014 (from 2013) I personally think the market will remain supported, and the lows in Dec-Jan are going to hold and the recent highs will be tested.  But I've been known be to wrong!!

Does anyone have a perspective on the SRW crop?  My sense is it is doing better than HRW....

And Shaggy - what is your longer term forecast for moisture?  From what I heard, there has been a little in the last few days....

[Palouser]

One of the stories on winterkill in the PNW was that when the ground warmed enough to come out of dormancy some wheat DID green up - and then died. I guess the crowns and roots were too badly damaged. That was with adequate moisture.

[pritchh]

WWW has advantages, certain endusers need it, nearly always goes for a premium.  Canada had a record crop in 12/13, mayyerss zero if expoets are slow or fatat this oint wheat is gron to sell, be consumer. Less sold now simply means more later in the crop year.

It will be hard to beat 13#s in 2014, know, expected. World wheat suppply is good, all these little stoires aof a problem here there are the NORM. Wheat is most grown in temperate clinmes and yr in out is imperfect. and much plkanted is not harvested. again the NoRM.  Out of the norm would be near perfect crops in all locations or terrible crops in all locations.

Wheat has been in a bear for ~ 3 yrs. We are having a great rally  ---    GOOd, bulls and bears need it!.

Seasonals turn negative in the US from here to harvest., is there something going on that will prevent the usual fall ?

[ray h.]

    What is WWW?white winter wheat.SWW in pac NW is grown for a specialty mkt for export.To my knowlege SWW in not produced in Canada.This is a must market for quality and supply,hence my last years feeeling of how the gmo problem would get resolved quickly,no other place to source it.

[pritchh]

Shaggy- Thx for sharing your views and especially because you live in the hreat I sssume we re talikbg HRW belt. 

Of course RRW is grown over a large, large area, important because it is prone to troubles of one kind or anither. The % unharvested yr in yr out averagee mucch higher than corn or beans. We need the breadth of geograhic diversity.

To the point, you are in the heart and see troubles, How can we extend that to get a sense of %, are you thinking 30%, or 50. No easy answer I know but any rough guess would be helpful.

If we are looking at now 2 yrs in a row of a poor HRW U.S. crop,,going to add up.

[Shaggy98]

I'd hate to put a number on it at this point, but it isn't stellar by any means. Yes to whomever asked, I am talking about the HRW wheat belt. We've got a little top soil moisture at the moment but very darn little with even less subsoil moisture. We will always have a small percentage of production even in the driest of years. '88 even garnered a few bushels but not to many. We've had some rain in the southern portion of the state but I don't know how much.

[sw363535]

Pritch, 2010 was the last wheat crop in HRW country.   Local coop normally gets 2.5 Million bu.  Last year less than half a million.