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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,894
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Wheat

[ Edited ]

Production down
Quality down
Good exports

Yet we go down by 25 cents last couple days.

 

The local bid is $ 3.35.  

 

Basis is over $1.00

 

You wonder why a person is sick

 

Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,464
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Wheat

cheapo - If I was you - I would consider yourself lucky - only - .25 ?? I would hate to see if you had beans and took a 60 cent cut : ))))))  just kiding with yeah

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 52
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Wheat

 

I hear your frustrations Cheapo. Tried to locate some information on this fabulous high speed, algorithmic grain trade we have these days. Here's a link (if I did it right) from 2012 talking about the dangers of such. Not surprising how these articles faded away into obscurity since. We have too many players "playing" the grain trade creating far too much volatility. As much as this frustrates me I think we've been hurt just as much or more from a local perspective i.e. ridiculous basis reflection and high quality, high desired wheat that is being stolen from us and blended with crap wheat down the chain. If I could get the loan to build my own bins so I could contract with a mill down the road 50 miles I would have done it by now, but I simply haven't had the financial resources to make that happen. Unfortunately those that have bigger voices that quote represent us just fall in line to keep their "positions". Maybe we are using ourselves because we have no true unity, but I'd love to hear suggestions from anyone that has realistic ideas on how to make a meaningful change to that. My farm had record bean and sorghum crops last fall, record wheat crops 2 years in a row and still can not cash flow. And much of this is not because of terrible marketing. The majority of my last 2 wheat crops have been sold in the $4 cash area (top 1/3 of seasonal harvest prices). Yet, the high input costs and erratic crop prices trump all of this. Everyone's financials and farms are different, but mine involves several young children and very little off farm income to summarize. I've started to make plans for an exit strategy once the wheat is planted this fall. I'm not willing to lose the little bit of equity I've got left just to stay in the game (a game is literally what it's become) for another year or two. NOT WORTH IT 

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 52
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Wheat

Couldn't get the file from that article to transfer so here is a copy of the link.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/high-speed-traders-jolt-us-grain-trade/article54...

Senior Contributor
Posts: 267
Registered: ‎05-03-2013
0

Re: Wheat

Hard red spring wheat down $.60 in last two days, basis -.85 and protein premiums dropped from $.05 per 1/5 over 14 to $.03. Discounts stayed the same. I'm bleeding to death from my bunghole.
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 158
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
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Re: Wheat

hey northnd i am also in northern nd and have had enough of the experts telling us for the past month that the july report didnt contain abandoned acres from the drought and that it would be reflected in the august report.Well here we are and now in order to kill the little bit of a market rally the usda came out with a huge increase in the FSU spring wheat that somehow is so big it almost wiped out the drought losses! All i can say is *****! Who bought off the USDA? Im afraid that spring wheat price will be as low or even lower than the past 3 years. Wheat in the US will be a thing of the past at this rate. This report reminds me of days past when corn was looking to be short and prices were rising that somehow a boatload of corn was being imported which killed the rally. whether corn was coming from overseas or not didnt matter. but just starting that story hurt any kind of increase in price. SAD how agriculture can be so easily manipulated. reminds of another wheat rally in the 80's but somehow 300 million bushels of wheat were found in chinese farms! That killed the market for years too. When i think about it im amazed we had such good prices for so long a few years ago! good luck 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 267
Registered: ‎05-03-2013

Re: Wheat

I hear ya. Makes doing your job incredibly difficult when your own government is conspiring against you. I could find copious examples of the shackles the government puts on certain groups and industries to try to hold them down, while propping up and ingratiating others. There is so little spring wheat raised anymore, this crap(and that is what it is) will just further the destruction of this industry and lead to more corn and beans. The farm program is completely geared towards those crops. I'm just not the farm the government type of farmer. I need a cereal crop in my rotation for many reasons.
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 158
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
0

Re: Wheat

altho wheat is in my rotation we have cut way back on the acres and put beans in because of the lower input costs! The wheat industry is going to kill wheat production because of the incessant discounts for any reason! i wonder what they will dream up this year!? last year it was vom before that it was low protien then scab and then if there is some rain at harvest its falling numbers! I did manage to sell what i had left at the actual board price a few weeks ago which surprised me because i had 6.2 vom last fall and now it was 1.8!!! My father who came from Europe told me when i was a kid that if communism ever fell and they figured out how to grow wheat again they would bury us in it! Russia use to supply Europe with wheat before the revolution. The ukraine alone has black dirt just like the RedRiver Valley and that dirt is a huge as our Great plains! When communism fell it opened the door for CaseIH,JD and all their support personell to show them how to use the machinery plus our know how in grain production! The almighty dollar will make people sell out their own country in the guise of free trade which is happening but our own politicians dont care. I can play the game as long ascthe rules are the same for all but when other countries devalue their money just to make a sale then why dont we do it too!
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,894
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Wheat

I don't know what the key is, but I've long wondered and pondered, if the farmers would unite up there.  The people in power (Washington)

only understand two things, power and money....and a big part of that is being in office.  It would be a good experiment if the farmers

got together, and flatly told the FB and NFU that they want a change, and if not, we will vote no for whoever votes not in our favor.

I'm afraid we have lost control, and we may need to take it back....our only weapons are our money and votes.

The problem is, the farm groups will go on ad nausium, why this will not work, that will not work, etc...etc...as if they are the experts.

they were started to defend us, and that has drifted to something that feeds on itself.....and a subgroup of people profit.

your house and senate people may need to be told flat out, you either change this, our we are not going to vote for you.  That could

be more successful up there due to farmers making up more of the population....here in the lower Midwest, forget it, it is such a

mess......we have a small group working on healthcare, and coming up with workable things....and neither of our reps will return calls.

FB and NFU, similar, and don't have any interest in our ideas and proposals.....because "their people" can't find answers.....I've got news,

they haven't.

 

About the only workable thing, and I doubt if they will go for it, is to somehow justify that the loan rate needs to be raised, due to

cost of production, to a better level, and hope you set the bar high enough, so that if the market does not go up, you can let them

have it, and you get enough out of it for cost and some profit

 

as for the board...........its all about the volume, because that's where the cme makes money.......the cme never used to be a profit center,

but rather a place to "discover" prices.....today, it's different.  

 

can we get the genie back in the bottle ?  well she has gained some weight since she got out, and hips are bigger, but if we apply enough greese (money) and force (pressue on our reps, and others), there is a chance.

 

 

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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 158
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
0

Re: Wheat

well said elcheapo. we do have good representation in congress from here but they are outnumbered and have been since the 70's or 80's. I have been at many many meetings trying to get them to understand that we need to be able to generate more revenue by increasing loan rates like you said and they all nod in agreement and then its forgotten. The grain companies do not want a higher loan. they want it moved to market so they can profit. loan rates are considered a direct drain on the budget even tho they are repaid with interest because of the way its accounted for in the budget. crazy!

Ag is at the mercy of a market that changes hourly even tho we plant for year long season. sure there are things we can use such as options but that is more of the same gambling that we are already doing with weather,markets etc. last fall as the market came up with vom discounts i was told not to bring any more in.Now with the market thinking there wont be enough wheat vom somehow dropped to very acceptable levels! That was a nice way for the buyers to store crop without building storage of their own! A lot of farmers sold with huge discounts so wheat acres are down a lot this year and who can blame them?