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02-07-2018 12:53 PM
Well those two contracts of wheat we have reowned for the 4 th time have now been sold for the 4th time.....today march18 kcwt at $4.79.
Now we are going to see if kcwt establishes an upward trend or is just a weather flash. Obviously we will be unexposed to risk in this market seeing what it does in the next week or two.
If we go down 30 cents and find strength to work back it will be repurchased.....
If we go down 55+ cents then I will wait to see where it lands..... these are not good prices to hedge sell at .
If it continues to go up for a long weather and "wake up" run. of say another 75 cents to the $5.60 to $6 range we will have cash sales opportunities and consider hedging or forward pricing production. Futures ownership will be restricted as long as low value or high value is difficult to judge.....
When wheat enters trend trading we will reconsider ownership... and look for other markets that are low value or historically high value to own or sell on a futures format.
54 cents was enough for this step.
02-08-2018 12:58 PM
New ideas? yes...
Human? No. God granted us two good ones and I will "take profit" and limit risk and damage.
------------------- except for the occasional chance to help someone.
If these comments on what I do are helpful... then I will keep sticking them in and expand them to the other crops... If not helpful let me know and I'll not.
Jim kept asking the question (probably to limit comments) but asking about marketing plan.... I decided to show mine a little more. And I appreciate him for that nudge.
1. My Plan is different and low risk, it intends to keep me open minded on futures and prices we are offered,,,,and seperate my marketing mind from my farmer hat.
2. as you know i am in a good location for selling choices...(it has limited my input on "marketing"--I cant share location) and professional marketing services aren't geared for this area. Location is far more lucritave than a marketing plan..... but the plan needs to be there to optimize. Similar to the position Palouser was in there in Washington state.
3. Like EVERybody else.... all marketing is local...... and different.... we should be sharing thoughts and ideas not copying from each other. Every producer is unique in his plan and process. Jim is never going to see a "one size fits all" marketing idea.