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08-30-2018 06:38 PM
I been on the tariff sidelines on wheat for quite a while. We sold crop nearly a month ago at nearly a dollar improvement from 2017. The gain was nearly all basis change.
It is without a doubt the safest grain to speculate on. Production fell in 4 of 5 world production areas in 2018.
Basis changes gives us a clue that US supply is not what it was.
Spring wheat had some disappointing reports early and has been quiet since..... Could be the northern wheat guys are a little hot over the wheat reaction to bean trade news affect on wheat.
If they are -- I sympathize with em.
I will sacrifice a little gain potential waiting for wheat to stop falling on it's "day after days"
Our wheat was finished late so I missed the first half of the July run.
The tariff fun will probably get us back to that starting point in the low $5's and we will be ready to ride the upward trail when this tariff horse gets too old to ride.
08-31-2018 06:24 AM
put some in delayed pricing at harvest. i should have known better. Market crashed soon after. did haul 30% cash at harvest. Should have done more!
Fourteen cents from the bailout is a joke. Market for spring wheat dropped $1.25! only thing thats worse are the corn guys at a penny! Really!!! canola dropped 25% and its not even on the list of eligible crops!
Canola is a big crop in northern ND as it is an oilseed that follows closely with the soy market. Funny how berries and nuts made the list!
Agriculture got a black eye from this so called help! The consumers think we got a huge bailout but in reality its the same old smoke and mirriors the government has always done.
The same day that bailout prices were made public the market amazingly dropped by the same amount!
08-31-2018 10:11 AM
Daily almost in double digits.
All wheat gone here... average was in the single
Digits. Pretty bad when the test plot, the
Highest yeild was below 20 but/ac.
The question anymore....can you do marketing
Anymore ? There is no rhyme nor reason,
And when the markets just start to look good,
Wham, basis kicks in.
09-03-2018 09:25 AM
And someday the public is going to wake up to the fact that much of "big news" agriculture, the "family farm" the public thinks it is supporting, is cosseted with supports for a life-style that many people would envy. Worse, the mythical mom and pop family farm is barely visible in the rear-view mirror. The mom and pop farm of today is 2,000 acres and growing, has to expand to support the kids (those who want to stay). When the present generation of baby-boomer farmers dies the only mom and pop farmers will mostly live in urban dead zones and subscribe to Mother Earth News.
As Smithfield gets sued for hog odors, as Monsanto (Bayer) gets sued for glyphosate, the wraps are coming off the public's eye. The continued exposure of violations in the organic market coupled with the expansion of organic into the mainstream grocery store means the farmer is getting closer and closer to public scrutiny and the public is not liking what it sees. So, we can expect a tougher and tougher time getting urban support for rural issues. If food stamps were not in the farm bill would we even have a farm bill? (If the College of Electors was eliminated, would we even have a rural presence at all?)
So the market bids all government aid into the farm prices. Who'd a thunk it?
09-03-2018 11:06 AM
09-03-2018 10:37 PM - edited 09-03-2018 10:38 PM
That was the problem with the "free or fair trade" lingo from the start--- we were the ones labeled to be harnessed by the environmental regulation while the developing world was given a pass while they develop. I wish someone could be honest about the trade deals of the last 20 years. They were not "free" or "fair" to the US. With the gift of our manufacturing to drag them into competitiveness.
The man is hard to like but right as rain on trade. The baby boomer socialists were buying votes for a world government election assuming the US would suffer through it for the good of the "earth" and a place in world leadership---we already had.. The most hard headed group of trust fund children in history.
That equipment does not have to meet US regulation.