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Veteran Contributor

Wheat??

Today looks pretty bad for the wheat move.  Whats up with the big drop in futures prices?  Has there been a rain event in HRW areas, or is rain forecasted?  Or is it positioning ahead of USDA?  I suppose some spec longs have nice profits and could be taking some $ off the table ahead of the report??

 

Anybody have any good knowledge?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat??

Canuck I am being told it is your fault...

 

Canadian wheat found trains with locomotives and are railing wheat into your southern neighbor. (flooding the market).

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Wheat??

My apologies!!  I don't know how that wheat could have arrived in the US when it hasn't left my bins yet!

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Wheat??

That is some of the magic that the USDA  does. A lot of hocus-pocus going on, it appears to me.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat??

"it appears to you?"  With the USDA, It's not what you see that you should be worried about.......it's what you don't see.   Smiley Wink

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Senior Advisor

Very minor imports to US

The amount of Canadian wheat coming in is very minor at this point. In fact, Canadian wheat that normally comes into the PNW to be exported is now down as the RRs want to push it through Vancouver and Prince Rupert to count against the new government requirements of the minimum amount of wheat they must move to Canadian ports.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Very minor imports to US

Not much different than what was being said about last years corn harvest being a bumper crop because Maryland had a good crop.

 

Always remember a poor excuse always beats no excuse.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Wheat??

Interestingly, SWW went UP today. It may be that the realities are cracking the facade of 'business as usual'.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Wheat??

the markets' usually end up cracking the facades, esp when they are particularly under or over-balanced.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Wheat??

On a percentage basis I think SWW may be far worse off than any other class of wheat. But, it is almost a specialty market for specific destinations. It won't shake the global wheat situation but I'll guess the basis over Chicago could easily be $2 in the end. There are still some factors pending that will affect this situation, but in fact it could get worse if Australia keeps trending dry.

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