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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Wheat

Christmas is just about here.  People are running about like chickens with their heads cut off........eggnog flowing like water, peanut

clusters everywhere you look.........the numbers on the screen of the glucometer just flash in time with the Christmas music.

people are trying to figure out how to get the year end bills all taken care off........

but things have changed over the years......in this area, the catholic church used to do midnight mass.......today it's more like 6 pm,

why, I was told too many people showed up drunk at the midnight service.........

 

The topic was to be wheat.........ok.......my Christmas gift to all of you out there.........buy a out of the money call....don't spend

a lot, and put it in the drawer and don't tell anyone.......

 

why ?

 

Been monitoring the wx and the like for a while now......it seems where wheat is usually planted it is dry.....been dry.......some

come up, but we have cold weather coming.  The plants are not well established, it is dry soil........it is a set up for winterkill.

For those of you in Chicago, and have this notion, that wheat has 9 lives.......well it's on it's 8th right now......all the dry wx and

dry profile, and due to low cost, not the "best" inputs used, we are to that level now, not later.

If we look at the acres planted......last year was a record LOW.....the lowest crop planted since the start of this CENTURY........in

todays hip hop world.....20 years is a long time........what is 80 years ??????

imagine what what happen if it was announced that we would be planting the same size crop of 1920 in corns or soybeans ????

Latest stuff shows, we will plant even LESS wheat this year.............

Here is the rub........world wide, the world is AWASH IN WHEAT @COPYRIGHT EL CHEAPO.......but in the good ole usa, not quite so.

And here is where things are disjointed.......would you feed your kids bread made from flour from somewhere funny in the world ?

I trust our folks from Canada, they are a ok bunch.......if only they would speak a little faster.....but the trade ((whoever that is anymore))

has this idea it is a commodity, and wheat in one part of the world is the same as the other......no it isn't, and the price should be

the same, no it shouldn't.

that is what happens when the true users and producers are driven out of the market, or "diluted" to a point where their actions have

no impact........when we trade the entire crop, many times over, how can you say it's just "buyers and sellers"......you can't

So when the kids or grandkids are shoving those chicken nuggests in their mounths, or the gold fish..........where did

that wheat come from ??????????

amazing, how they want us to "buy American"........but yet in the markets, we have prices in some far away land, pointed to, that

they can get the crop for that price and we should be cheaper.......

 

i'm told it's a world market......no, not really........when we use over 50 percent of our production here, it's a local market.

 

With so many "investors", they tend to push the market further than they should........

 

so kids.....one of these days, someone is going to wake up and decide that there is a problem in the wheat market, and away we

go to the races..............

 

have your picnic baskets filled, and in the station wagon......and go along for the ride.........

 

MERRY CHRISTMAS

 

@ COPYRIGHT 2017 EL CHEAPO

 

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12 Replies
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat

Please buy an ITM call instead and then sell a Feb Put to pay for it...just a thought

 

Merry Christ...mas.

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wheat

I understand what you are saying, and chances are you will be correct more than myself.

here is where i'm coming come.  This "event" wlll be durning the holidays..........nobody will be home...charts showing

things get even worse after the first of the year........so it will take the CME bunch a few days to sober up......so next week

or two, unless rocket man or tweety bird does something stupid, will be not much news, unless you will talk of a mystery

that is traded, bitcoin...........

 

also, there is such an attitude in the commodities that you cant get anything going.........nyse and bit coin are going to the

moon and nobody is diversifying into commodities.  Plus there is sediment that you cant kill wheat, and we have a big

supply already, and so what if we don't raise anything

 

I think too, with the end of the year, etc, etc, we will see people that want to get their house in order, which usually means

sell, and get things at a lower price.......so it would not surprise me if we should commodities to get into the freezer for a

while.......if that happens, the not only are you lower on your value of you call, but you have to pay some into on the put !!!

if you think your sad now, when prices are even lower, you've loosiig eve more !!!!!

 

yes time, I see your point, and getting into a position,  """which should """" prove to be profitable....at little if no cost normally

is good......but anymore...............

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ihtractortherap
Senior Contributor

Re: Wheat

I'm long in the field, long in the bin and long on the board!
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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat

I believe that wheat needs to lead us out of these price doldrums.  With higher wheat prices, more acres get planted to wheat and will lead to lower acres of other crops. We just need to figure out how to get more demand for wheat.......not an easy task.

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Wheat

I am not sure you are as isolated from the world as you hope elcheapo.

This is just a story I was told yesterday, is it true?.

An elevator in Ontario has been keeping their workers busy cleaning 'organic' wheat from Russia which is then being shipped to the USA.

and that elevator system is owned by a US corporation

Whitesand_Farms
Veteran Contributor

Re: Wheat

Oh I remember this spring when I read the US had the smallest planted crop in a 100 years. Then a day before the spring crop tour a winter storm hit the southern states. I figured wow is wheat going to shoot up through the charts. But unfortunately that snow didn't hurt the crop and actually added bushels. Then the drought hit the northern states and Canada and I figured, yep this is it here we go. But then somehow on an inch of rain they produced record yields. Then I read about Australia and Argentina had wheat production problems and the price didn't shoot up. I know on my farm I must have been the only one to feel the effects of the dryness because my yields were atleast 20bu less than what the stooges at stats Canada put out for an average yield. I have been long wheat for years and have yet to cash in. It's like it's a sin for the markets to raise the price of wheat and for every real story about production problems there are 2 the next day to paint a rosey picture. And hey let's be realistic if wheat skyrocketed up as fast as it rose the basis would climb 10 fold. Wheat is and always be the biggest scam for robbing farmers blind. Unfortunately I'm forced to grow it and take what pennies they reward me with for all my hard work.
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northnd
Senior Contributor

Re: Wheat

Wow whitesand, I couldn’t possibly agree more. I’m waiting for the proverbial 9 lives axiom to be amended. Can here it now, “Oh yeah wheat has used up 8 lives but with today’s stellar varieties that has a least been doubled so we have 10 more lives to go”. Remember the irradiated Russian wheat story a few weeks ago? It amazingly vaporized and have heard nothing bing about it. Not a blip of upward movement. May have been a farse but would have expected to hear about testing,etc. I am becoming convinced NOTHING will move this market unless the trade can get positioned on the right side of it. Problem is many have been burned in the past and price discovery has been destroyed. IMHO.
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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wheat

Winter wheat seedings seen hitting the lowest since 1909, Price Futures Group pointed out in a daily note to customers Thursday.

 

FWIW,

 

Mike

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wheat

Consider that 20% to25% of what is planted is not going to see a combine..... Not intended to ..... will be grazed out. silaged. or killed as a cover crop.  

 

Wheat has been so land grant tweeked that it will not make it through the 4th life..... The stamina is so poor that it is not even the first choice for spring green silage, or graze out...... triticale has taken lots of those acres.

 

But thank you Canuk.... You just defined the value of the "organic" label.  And the fools are paying a premium for that "organic" wheat.

 

From Apple and microsoft to plain old common wheat all it has to do is cross the ocean and get relabeled. It is politically correct for public consumption and saving the earth.

 

My computer is an earth friendly block of aluminum.  But my pepsi can with its corn syrup is killing us all cause it is origined in the US.  The labeling has the liability of truth until things cross a boarder.

 

 

 

 

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