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Veteran Advisor

When Do We Trade Harvest

Oh, it's underway. Even as far north as near Des Moines, Iowa. I found this Milo, Iowa, farmer out Sunday. But, when do you think the market will begin to trade actual yields vs. USDA and others' yield projections?

 

Corn Harvest2016 Milo.jpg

 

Mike

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5 Replies
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Veteran Advisor

Re: When Do We Trade Harvest

Cynical reply -- it depends -- if yields seem higher than USDA, will start trading right away -- if yields seem lower than USDA, will start trading when confirmed by USDA.

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Honored Advisor

Re: When Do We Trade Harvest

WCMO with wise words there folks.   Smiley Wink

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Honored Advisor

Re: When Do We Trade Harvest

Harvest smarvest, it has already been traded...from Mar on, it's old news. We've been told what it was /is since before it was planted.

Time to move on,...nothing to see here but white caped mountains of the stuff shortly.

Move along

Move along
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Senior Contributor

Re: When Do We Trade Harvest

And USDA will not confirm them until they have "projected" a record crop in 2017.

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Senior Advisor

Re: When Do We Trade Harvest

Implicit in your question is that yields will be less than USDA projects and therefore prices should rise when this information is factored into the market.

If prices dont' rise as harvest progresses it may be evidence that traders don't believe the reported yields.  Why should farmers tell the truth about their yields?  Most farmers predict less than they will raise and tell their neighbors they raised more than they really did.

Some think early yields are skewed one way or the other.

My guess is the trade will factor in yields before they are really well established and then adjust as more yields come in.

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