cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Honored Advisor

When is trade going to pay attention to...

...planting delays in Northern Iowa and Minnesota?   There are millions of acres of untouched bean stubble and corn stalks.  Now I know "it`s early yet" and yeah it is, but it`s not like tomorrow or the next day planters will be kicking up dust in these saturated fields. A lot of these cockydoodles would normally be done with beans now, but have barely started corn.  And this corn planted was kind of mudded in...if it stays wet, they`ll be heroes, if it bakes up like bricks, they`ll be zeros.  

 

Pioneer man says you lose .4 bushel per day that you plant beans in May, so you have a large productive area that might be 10 days away from beanin` in earnest. 

 

I think too much focus has been paid to central/southern Iowa and Illinois planting progress.   I guess to answer my own question,  when the planting reports from Minnesota come out in mid-May, the trade will pay attention.   Don`t skate where the puck is, skate to where it will be.   Smiley Happy

0 Kudos
22 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

Now you know how we wheat farmers feel
0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

Well ElCheapo, I look at 2013 and we aren`t there....yet, but nationwide 2013 was a trendline yield year.   It is a little too early to be talking "prevent plant", but if you`re going to see it, this is how it starts.   The ag media has been too focused on planting progress on Iowa`s "bikini bottom".  If USDA`s survey of <80 million acres on each corn and beans and then you throw in planting headaches in the brain stem area of the cornbelt, the grains might get a "story". 

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

Hi BA, I guess I don't pay attention sometimes. Could you please remind me what part of the country you're reporting from.

 

Thanks

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

BA......sounds like I need to take another crop trip and stop at Vinje for a giant mushroom and swiss burger!!

 

don't pick on us poor southern Iowa country cousins as this only happens once in 15-20 years!!

 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Contributor

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

I agree with your assessment having grown up in NW Iowa.   We like to have the corn in the ground by May10 or not much later to miss an early frost.

Weather forecasts do not give much of a window now or early next week for this to happen along with rather cold ground temperatures.   I think the trade will be pretty sensitive to this next week with the latest WASDE on their minds.   The USDA lowered the 18-19 world corn carryout by 36mmt to 159mmt,   Just this last week, China announced a reduction in corn acres because they want to grow more soybeans.   The est. corn prod by the chinese this year is 209.5 vs 225 USDA.   Take another 15mmt off of 159 and maybe a not so stellar production year for FSU(getting dry) along any lost acres from the Daks, Mn and maybe Wisc and northern Ia---the trade will have to pay attention.   I cannot see Kansas and wheat country planting alot of corn without some substantial rains or weather pattern change.   Personally can see a steady grind higher, esp in 19 dec corn-buck or more?

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

Don't you understand, the markets/trade no longer
Pay attention to fundamentals. No reason to
0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

To answer the original question..........they are not going to pay any attention to it.   The complacency of the traders and marketplace continues to astound me.    

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

Too Close, I`m located in north central Iowa.   Ray, yes you guys often have a different set of problems, I`m glad for you folks that you`re pretty much done.  It isn`t good planting conditions all over though, they say "Iowa is 3 days behind", that might be true in the aggregate but at the top of the state it`s behind and rain is falling this am.  Yesterday drove by farmers in very less than ideal conditions mudding in corn out of desperation. I do think it`s too 'early"  for that and heck of it is 40 degree rain is the first drink that corn is getting, to that`ll be "test plots" worth watching.

 

Every year someone has planting challenges and this year it`s "here".    Gavilon over at Joice has the tarp off their last pile and few days ago when I drove by it was partially few loads taken, but the peak remained and some dark stuff, quality corn wouldn`t stand up like that..  Last year was a wet crop and a deceiving crop to dry and tough to store, but those piles disappeared.  

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

NWS storm totals show 2 - 3 inches for northern IA and southern MN this morning.

Couple counties either side of interstate 90 continue to get hammered.

Whether it is snow or rain there's some pretty good dirt being affected.

It is only May 11th but getting pretty close to 3 weeks behind normal.

Too wet there and way too dry in other places - must be "normal".

 

0 Kudos