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Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,520
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

Average...by extremes.

 

Does not bode well for a bin busting crop 

 

Just had a rain come through here, still showering so haven't been to the Gage. Light to the west so about done. 

Not enough to run off anything but roof and driveway.

Really nice to have it, we are closer to dry than wet here.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,138
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

The complacency on the demand side of the equation is totally subsidized by Congress....... If we don't raise it.... it will be available even if subsidation is required.  

Demand is guaranteed by snap through the usda budget promoted as a benefit to producers.

 

The buyers of commodities have been subsidized by government to a much greater extent than production........ So   BA    it is simple ...... there is no risk on that side.  Why should we expect any concern for a short crop.  If for some unforseen problem limits local supply, the cost of acquiring need can be passed on and blamed on the inept farm community.

 

What else can we expect to replace complacency?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,138
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

It is just one of multiple examples of how multi national corporations have become the beneficiary of federal programs intended to benefit citizens through tax code and direct benefits while they enhance portions lf the economy.    It is the benefit of being powerful enough to change your business model to fit congressional mood and being financially strong enough in an economy sector to be the experts hired to write the legislation in the first place........ or have influence on those who are hired to write it.

 

Farmers are not in that equation....... We expect our Universities to suport the producers welfare, but they don't.  At best they are trying to help us survive, as long as it does not threaten their survival or the survival of their image.

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,520
Registered: ‎01-10-2012

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

SW, I disagree.

 

The university's are turning out the same crap back to the farm that they are turning out for ag journalism.

 

Their research breakthroughs are licensed to the multinationals for a pittance, and then double charged back to us at retail for half a farming career lifetime.

 

We have two problems in this country : 

 

Career politicians

 

Career educators with second to fourth generational removal from production of anything necessary for life.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 16,003
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

This might be a little "old news" but Elwynn Taylor is predicting a "below trend corn yield"  and that is based on a summer drought.

 

Yes, the "Drought Monitor" is typical of the season for a La Nina (even though weak, persistence would likely result in a somewhat below trend US corn yield for 2018). Likely is: 70% chance at this time.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,138
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

We look like we’re going to agree with him. This is a 2011 start. First two weeks of may 92-96 degree days and 1 inch since August 2017. Probably moved east from here.
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,600
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

Last I knew Taylor thought the I states would
Be ok, but ks south were to be toast.

Now this is when we're supposed to buy
Dec corn calls.....

Right ?
Honored Advisor
Posts: 16,003
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

If you sold Dec corn, it might not be the dumbest thing to protect yourself with a call.   There`s so many other issues beyond production, like a "trade war" I`m not saying that we won`t ultimately win it, but that`s not to say when you`re delivering your new crop, you`ll wonder why you "wasted your money on the call premium".   Ooooor it turns out dry, drier than El is predicting and our new friend China doubles up their orders and E-15 and E-85 is breaking records and hungry denuclearfied North Korea wants fed.  So corn shoots to $9 and you`re stuck delivering $4 when not contracted corn is $9 on the coop chalkboard. That possibility would behoove you to have some kind of out of the money call to take the sting off.

 

*commodity trading is risky and the author assumes no responsibility for any advice given.   Smiley Happy

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,520
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...


"*commodity trading is risky and the author assumes no responsibility for any advice given."

 

BA: you've got the makings of a new side career.

 

I'll alert IPTV, maybe next time they have "the sky is falling" Tomm on you can sit across the desk for balance.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 16,003
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: When is trade going to pay attention to...

I do rock a bowtie and smarty pants glasses   Smiley Very Happy