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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

When its all said and done could........

we actually have less corn acres harvested this year than last.............if you have not been keeping up on the upper MO river basin issues and whats getting ready to happen...........start reading up............because this one might make even more history than the lower MS river flood this year.............

 

Marketeye........what do things look like with a 12.5B corn crop............because we are headed that way very very very very fast............what do things look like with a 3.0B soya crop on top of that................and what happens if the HRW yields are what some of us expect, horrible.............and what happens when the spring wheat crop from US to Canada is toast again this year............seems we are having trouble rationing things.........we spike up a little and then sell off giving end users opportunities...........

 

on the demand side.............will consumption of food really slow down that much even if the economy does continue to cool??????  IMO the rate of cooling will be offset by additional masses...............and if cooling doesn't have that much effect or is short lived we are full speed ahead...........

 

old habits are hard to break..............cheap grain cheap food is a habit..........

 

EDIT:  and yes I know the whole ethanol biofuel thing is a big topic of discussion..........but I challenge everyone for or against ethanol...........if not ethanol, what.............if we get rid of ethanol we need to find something to replace it immediately...........right now and at the same level or more.............I am for alternative energy, energy independence, and domestic energy sources that create wealth in THIS COUNTRY, not others..........ethanol fills that gap right now..........ERGO the reason its probably not going anywere just yet...........because to my knowledge and to date, even the most hard nosed opponents of ethanol don't have an answer.........if you find the answer to hold the key............

 

 

 

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4 Replies
rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: When its all said and done could........

I don't see any particular notion that anyone wants to get rid of ethanol in total...

 

I do see a need to better utilize available corn supplies when they are very tight---and maybe that means ethanol usage gets trimmed back by 10-20% for periods of time....but I don't see any statesmen in the ethanol business willing to come forward and address the tough choices that lie ahead----so we're going to see just how many ethanol plants and livestock producers we can force into BK and then start the cycle all over again.

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: When its all said and done could........

agreed ray, i believe brazil flexes their E program depending on sugar prices and the available supply of cane. seems rational to me. d7

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: When its all said and done could........

Hey mizzou did you get your spraying done?

 

Here is the question And I do not think you are off on your numbers at all. We have a problem.

 

How long does it take to get a mothballed livestock operation back up and going as compared to an ethol plant?

 

Which will have long term ill health impact?

 

Not eating is really bad for your waist line not driving well it just keeps you at home more.

 

And no I have no desire to get rid of ethol as an oxygenate there is nothing better. However that is a far less demand than what we are asking for now. As usuall since the goose that laid the golden egg we have always wanted more.

So I ask you corn guys how much is enough?

 

Do you need 10 dollar corn why isn't 5 enough? 

 

THe end result is a very bad thing for The livestock guy and the consumer. BUt some opld fart who likes to drive all over will have cheaper gas!

 

In the end we have to ask is ethol discretionary or is livestock? 

 

And the MO river thingy is gonna be huge!

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: When its all said and done could........

depends on what we are talking about...........pork and poultry......no time at all...........has been my experience anyway.............typcially the infastructure is left intact and it acts very much like a switch on and off.............beef, that takes awhile.........probably one of the smaller reasons why the beef industry is not vertically integrated like the other two, that and the reproduction cycle for beef is much different both in time and space..........

 

there in lies the reason I think beef prices should be higher...........

 

I do understand your reasoning in hinting that an ethanol plant can act more like switch on and switch off............however based on the demand base for ethanol both in oxy sub and EPA mandate..........what replaces it, do we relax the some of this to compensate........then do you spread the reduction across all plants, pro rate it based on output, or geography, or consumption versus regional production, or based on the plants ability to survive??????  Who makes that decision.........reason I ask.......some plants may not be stable enough yet to survive something like that.........so if its a switch on and off, ethanol is likely a quicker route, right up until the plant goes under, and I am sure you have an idea of what it takes to get a new one up and running.........its a catch 22...............

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