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Honored Advisor

When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

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13 Replies

Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

I saw it earlier. Tried to give it reasonable consideration and anything is possible.

 

But despite yesterdays short rip, I don't see how anything has changed. Global growth and money supply are struggling- I suppose the thing to watch would be some co-ordinated global intervention but I don't see any sign of it.

 

Couldn't be surprised by a few more days of mugging shorts but I guess that's all we'll see.

 

If we were in serious risk on mode I think grains would really be flying but in this setup they'll have to pull their own weight.

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Frequent Visitor

Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

I think grains are trading about where they can for just the reasons you listed if the drought continues and proves to be a bigger problem the markets will be flying high. A little bit of rain and antsy speculators will drive the market down fast. Atleast the markets are watching the weather and not as much Europe or the other million things non ag related that adds so much volatility to our livelihoods.
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Honored Advisor

Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

Thanks Hobby,

 

Interesting,   Maybe we will have a national holiday in the future -------QE Day, or QE Spring and QE Fall-----three day holidays to replace "Labor" day and Memorial Day.

 

It is bad though when those who are investment analysts start sounding like the "carnival" guys who sell pyramid schemes.  "Send me the last of your savings and we can make you rich"-----------------"Guaranteed, by the US Government"!

 

The more I read it the more it sounded like this.

 

Only thing I can say positive on this one-----------------I still expect big inflation at some point.  We have gotten used to this level of inflation to the point that some deny it.  Fast inflation is somewhat described in this "expert" sales pitch.  Am I way off?

 

Important to base ones life on more stable things to be able to deal with these issues as they unfold.

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Honored Advisor

Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

OK guys: heres the deal, if you want a little back ground and an insight into 75% of my thinking on the coming events here is a link to a book written in the early seventies

 

READ THE FIRST 6 or 7 chapters then skip to 42and 43

 

here is the link ... This is not a 15 minute deal,  this is the real deal...

 

http://esocap.com/uploads/files/Dying%20of%20Money.pdf

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Senior Contributor

Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

 

I have a story about that period of time in Germany,   IT was told by a man that lived there at the time.  

I can clean it up alot but still not for sure If I should post it.  SO i won't.  

 

 

I made a suggestion in economic class in college that inflation is a man made scenerio.   I still believe that is true.  

Take for instance that I sell tractors and mark them up 10% if a tractor cost $1000 I make $100. 

I decide that I want to make more money.  So I start running up the tractor cost.    soon it cost $2000.  if I leave my mark up at 10% I make $200.  

 

Take 140 horse tractor from on of the top tractor companins in the world.  They have ALMOST doubled in price in the last 8 years.  I priced one at $70000 in 2004 now I priced one around $120000 today.   same basic tractor maybe even a little less still then the one in 2004.  Now steel has not double in price in 8 years.   Labor has not doubled in 8 years,  health insurance may have doubled.   But still what I'm getting at is INFLATION IS WHAT THE BIG COMPANIES DESIRE.  That is way we are told that a 2-3% growth is good.   Deflation causes millionaires to become ordinary citizens.  We can't have that.  

 

thats my two cents on the subject

 

I'll read that link you place on this page.

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

I think the real truth is farmers have had it very good. We should be thankful. Slice ity, dice it, spin it, flip it, whatever. Farmers have been in the catbird seat and most others have taken it in the shorts. We are the exception. Our experience can't be used as a generalization for almost anyone else in this economy and have it hold up.

 

Remember, the average decline in net worth for American families has fallen 40% since 2007. That's not just those who were in the sub prime scam. AVERAGE. How many farmers can say that? 

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Senior Contributor

Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

    Unfortunatly,all of the neg talk in the face of better markets probably has some merrit.I wish not. Our fathers and grandfathers would have had it made with a bull with thus many fundementals,but this is just to political.We have a little room guys,how much no one realy knows.If it was wheat leading,I"d say 07 alll over again,but like any thing these days,this is a different animal! Ethyl and political interest could kill the bull.(But guess what guys,I am bullish!)

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Honored Advisor

Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

Very well sail Palouse.

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Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

The hyperinflationary narrative seems to exert a powerful emotional pull.

 

But how're you gonna get serious inflation when there is absolutely no pricing power in the labor market- particularly when "the market" is intent on frontrunning any distant sign that there might be by piling into commodities and other "inflation hedges" ?

 

Really the only way is to flat out print banknotes, which we're at minimum a ways from yet.

 

That could happen but I'll continue in my belief that we struck the orthodox top of the 60ish year inflation and commodity cycle in 2008 and are just running through some echo ripples here.

 

 

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