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highyields
Senior Contributor

Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

Hardnox, your point about no pricing power in my opinion just proves my point about inflation being man made. 

our current adminstration has increased the man supply in the US by 120% give or take a few clicks.   The "indicators"  say we have no infaltion.  well just stand back in those indicators start showing inflation.  

Commodities will do good in the kind of conditions we have today. 

To say we in the farm sector well see hyper inflation,  I think that is a false statement.  I think we already have seen above normal inflation.  Well pickups go to $80,000 I doubt it,   look how expenses have climbed in just 10 years. 

 

Your right we are in a commodity up swing for the time being but we are about at the top.   Wheat was mention in another post.

Wheat started the rally early in the decade.  Then corn, now beans are running low.  Cattle prices have been crazy the past 10 years.  If and when cattle prices back off, or wheat suddenly slumps.  It might be over.   

 

 

 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

You are missing the big picture that commodities are always in finite supply do to the new uses AND expanded consumer base. There have always been weather problems. That will not change. Then there is the storage problems in many humid warm climates. We are talking food supply here.

 

The three F's will trump everything else always within 1 year and usually within 3 months. (food, fiber, fuel.) I do not believe the food supply is as elastic as it used to be due to the population increases world wide.

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Speaking of germany

My dad in laws brother served in the army in germany during and after WW2. In north iowa during the 60's he bought 3 half sections claiming land was going to $800 per acre because we were going to have hyper inflation like germany had.

 

The ink was hardly dry on the contracts and it was on the way.

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hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: When "experts" talk like this the bottom is about to fall out

Commodities are the new Fed Funds. 

 

Commodity inflation, either of real or financial nature, is essntially deflationary as it just puts another straw on the demand camel's back in hte absence of wage growth.

 

You get a one off bump in inflation from a commodity spike then it is over as compared to a wage/price spiral that goes on into infinity.

 

 

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