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sw363535
Honored Advisor

When supply is very short......

Does price become unstable(up and down) when supply is extremely limited?  Volatility seems to me to be a bigger indicator of short supply than how high price is.
 
Did brazil run out of beans in September??
 
 
 
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9 Replies
fringeacres
Veteran Contributor

Re: When supply is very short......

Farmers get offered 2$ over to get beans to a port to fill an export.   It is gonna get crazy, if this is just the beginning.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: When supply is very short......

Fringe,

I think you are right. ------ Futures price may not show the severity of the shortage, but situational basis is where opportunities are in the next few months.

ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: When supply is very short......

sw -- is Brazil out of beans in sept. ? OR did they just run out of beans at OR close to port to load out ? Is this just the lack of rail and roads to get it to port ? Then again just look at our export sells to date , pretty dang good for 15 buck beans . Would not be surprized if U.S. don't have to import beans in spring or early summer .
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: When supply is very short......

Ecin: We know your corn situation in the eastern grain belt is short and many areas are already +20 to +40 over board on the corn price.

 

Where is your bean basis? We are still -20 to -38 here in south central Iowa.

 

On a side note I rode with the trucker to the alcohol plant 40 miles west of here yesterday and saw one field of beans and quite a few large fields of corn to be harvested yet. Most is out and the ground worked in many cases.

 

The corn delivered was harvested Sat afternoon and was 18.1% moisture, 58# tw and 0 on Aflotoxin.

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: When supply is very short......

How in the heck did you not get rejected due to excessive moisture?  Around here, there isn't one single ethanol plant that will accept corn over 16.9% moisture.  They claim the wetter corn plugs up their grinder grates.  

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: When supply is very short......

Guess I'm just special?

 

Actually they don't want a lot of it but can and do take a little. It is costing 6cents / 1/2% moisture over 15.5% but no shrink, paid on wet bu.

 

My bins were piled to the peak this weekend, just pulling out the cores and piles under the roofs.

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: When supply is very short......

Hobby....what is the freight rate to Bunge at Council Bluffs??

 

I see they are posted at +15F yesterday

 

assume you went to Poet/Corning with the corn?

 

Is 3 cents/half their normal moisture scale?

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: When supply is very short......

Hobby -- beans to Bunge we are at +.10 basis thur March . corn is still +.20 over March .
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: When supply is very short......

RayJ I posted wrong it is 6 cents /  1/2% moisture      12 cents/1%. Sorry

 

Frieght is costing me 20cents. They were +18 the day last week I sold for $7.78 

 

They pay on wet bushels. Local elevators get shrink and drying then pay on dry bu.

 

If I figured right about 11 cents worth of shrink if I waited for it to dry down.

 

Bunge would cost around 35 cents to get it there from here. With the way they bid once in a while the Bunge bean plant may get the beans if and when I decide to make that currency swap. A minute ago Bunge / Council Bluffs +05 beans.

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