When supply is very short......

[sw363535]

Does price become unstable(up and down) when supply is extremely limited?  Volatility seems to me to be a bigger indicator of short supply than how high price is.

Did brazil run out of beans in September??

[fringeacres]

Farmers get offered 2$ over to get beans to a port to fill an export.   It is gonna get crazy, if this is just the beginning.

[sw363535]

Fringe,

I think you are right. ------ Futures price may not show the severity of the shortage, but situational basis is where opportunities are in the next few months.

[ECIN]

sw -- is Brazil out of beans in sept. ? OR did they just run out of beans at OR close to port to load out ? Is this just the lack of rail and roads to get it to port ? Then again just look at our export sells to date , pretty dang good for 15 buck beans . Would not be surprized if U.S. don't have to import beans in spring or early summer .

[Hobbyfarmer]

Ecin: We know your corn situation in the eastern grain belt is short and many areas are already +20 to +40 over board on the corn price.

Where is your bean basis? We are still -20 to -38 here in south central Iowa.

On a side note I rode with the trucker to the alcohol plant 40 miles west of here yesterday and saw one field of beans and quite a few large fields of corn to be harvested yet. Most is out and the ground worked in many cases.

The corn delivered was harvested Sat afternoon and was 18.1% moisture, 58# tw and 0 on Aflotoxin.

[GoredHusker]

How in the heck did you not get rejected due to excessive moisture?  Around here, there isn't one single ethanol plant that will accept corn over 16.9% moisture.  They claim the wetter corn plugs up their grinder grates.  

[Hobbyfarmer]

Guess I'm just special?

Actually they don't want a lot of it but can and do take a little. It is costing 6cents / 1/2% moisture over 15.5% but no shrink, paid on wet bu.

My bins were piled to the peak this weekend, just pulling out the cores and piles under the roofs.

[rayjenkins]

Hobby....what is the freight rate to Bunge at Council Bluffs??

I see they are posted at +15F yesterday

assume you went to Poet/Corning with the corn?

Is 3 cents/half their normal moisture scale?

[ECIN]

Hobby -- beans to Bunge we are at +.10 basis thur March . corn is still +.20 over March .

[Hobbyfarmer]

RayJ I posted wrong it is 6 cents /  1/2% moisture      12 cents/1%. Sorry

Frieght is costing me 20cents. They were +18 the day last week I sold for $7.78 

They pay on wet bushels. Local elevators get shrink and drying then pay on dry bu.

If I figured right about 11 cents worth of shrink if I waited for it to dry down.

Bunge would cost around 35 cents to get it there from here. With the way they bid once in a while the Bunge bean plant may get the beans if and when I decide to make that currency swap. A minute ago Bunge / Council Bluffs +05 beans.