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08-02-2018 11:14 AM
Since I am north of the border our $$ and different market conditions impact our price so I will stick to numbers here and not bother with Chicago and what it might be doing or going to do although that has some impact too.
All winter wheat was bringing $180-190/t for immediate delivery but I caught a move and presold a % of 2018 crop at the 'good' price of $235/t which I would be happy with.
Today board price is $253.62/t
All numbers are of course Can$ and rumours have it that our $ will increase in value anytime now which will reduce my price/t.
Have had the phone in my hand several days this week ready to make that call and sell the next instalment. So how much longer can I wait for a few more $$'s?
BTW now board price is $254.17
Blow off top??
08-02-2018 11:17 AM
With the drought conditions in Australia, the fires in oregon, and the low yields in kansas. I'm bullish wheat, and I believe it'll lead corn higher. Soybeans are a hostage of the trade war and until that is fixed are stuck.
08-02-2018 12:13 PM - edited 08-02-2018 12:16 PM
As the AU crop fails the wheat complex should just keep rolling higher.
you should be towards the $500 t level by Nov. thru Spring.
au harvest is pretty much in Oct Nov.
theres just No good crop production news globally for wheat,
maybe by late Spring wheat production might look better....course a late freeze ....oh well.
08-02-2018 04:55 PM
Yes, NOW was probably correct.
I should have been calling to sell when I was posting this.
Closing price on the board locally is $244.50/t
Down $10 from earlier.
Shoulda, woulda, coulda have had a bid in at $250
08-03-2018 06:01 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong but the last time wheat had a major rally was 2010. If I remember correctly, it started in late July and was due to a drought in Russia. The wheat rally lead to higher corn and soybean prices as well.
I really think that wheat will again lead the way in another rally. Who knows how high it can go. There seems to be a lot of room at the top.
As far a s selling, I would never talk anyone out of a grain sale. All sales can be good.
08-03-2018 04:56 PM - edited 08-03-2018 04:57 PM
I sold this morning...............bills to pay........... Will reown some of it on the board next week.
$5.55 -17 basis