When you’re wrong

[sdholloway56]

you should admit it and take it as a learning experience.

Even I was a little too sure of the inflation narrative. Now looking very much like a one off, like the 2008 bubble.

That’s exactly what the market is saying if you look at TIPS, long rates, the very stable $USD.

We do have an asset inflation problem, wholly created by the Fed. But that’s now more of a deflation problem because, where do you go from here?

BTW, “conservative” economic pundits like Moore and Kudlow are almost always wrong- and their academic brethren a lot too- but the never admit it or learn anything.

BTW, remember that mid-80s hyperinflation that Milton Friedman was in a lather about?

Me neither.

BTW, like 2008 and 2011, the hot money playing the inflation theme in commodities won’t leave on its own accord, the market will have to force it out. Which took several years.

[rsbs]

cue me in nutz on what you have actually been right about in the last 15 years.

Have you tried buying a piece of farmground lately?

oh, that's right....in your world you either have to marry into it, or inherit it.

[sdholloway56]

I know you're butthurt, Red, but maybe you should try some reason instead of all that wasted emotion. All feelings, all the time. But xxxx Yours!

I'm awaiting your critique of my assessment.

[sdholloway56]

In particular, I bring up Friedman's absolute belief in the Quantity Theory of Money. 

That particular theory has failed in real world analysis regularly since the 80s.

But a problem when something that isn't working is still a part of the religious canon.

[BA Deere]

The aging prom queen still fits in the old dress   🙂     The BTO probably wants inflation and $9 corn to make paying for the $15,000 land easier.  And I`m okay with that, I can live off their crumbs, but deflation we`re all miserable together.  I`ve always said we`re probably going to whipsaw between inflation and deflation, being as the national debt is $30 trillion. 

The Fed is under the hood changing sparkplug wires around & turning the distributor ...and squirting cans of ether directly into the carburetor, a 15 second snapshot of the motor running and you might think it`s fine.  Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates` networth might buy all the US corn, beans & wheat crops for the year.   But to keep partisan passing $2.9 Trillion spending bills, you`d have to confiscate everyone`s wealth over $500,000 to run things 2 months, if one believes that we just aren`t taxed enough.

Someone needs to put up a tent around this circus!

[sdholloway56]

Yeah, and it's justtheflu.

[sdholloway56]

Specifically, do you still have your Death of the Dollar drum that you were beating at the low?

Listening to propagandists who are just trying to manipulate your emotions is a bad idea.

[sdholloway56]

The Fed did in fact begin an unprecedented set of actions to help in the re-election of the incumbent, beginning in late 2018 and going nuclear in March '20.

It fell short.

The Fed has always, at minimum, avoided getting sideways with the WH in the period before an election. But this was without precedent.

As always, there will be costs downstream. Here I think the great problem is that every single major asset class is historically overvalued. 

[BA Deere]

Nox, also as i`ve said many times in the past the Dollar Index is just measured against the Euro, the British Pound, the Yen, the Canadian dollar, the Franc and Krona   ...those countries don`t have problems?  All we have to to is be better than them and Voila! strong Dollar.   To add to it most of those countries are perfectly happy not having the strongest currency.

What you have to understand about how inflation is figured is semiconductors getting faster & faster, therefore "cheaper" that balances out the price rises on goods that normal people buy.  When will microchip efficiency top out? 

Whatever is predicted will probably be correct for 6 weeks, then it will be wrong for 6 weeks.  Look at corn and bean prices, corn rallies 40¢ "corn is going to the moon!" next day corn drops 10¢ and "those traders are nuts!" and illinoisfarmer calls them "cr o oks!" .  But only 20/20 hindsight will reveal who was "most right".

[Hobbyfarmer]

SD, I think you should change your name on here again .

I would suggest. WWCallttheway.

The dollar is not strong it is just slightly less weak than those mentioned.

My new pickup on order is over $60,000  and it's just an XLT 150.

Very little value in any one single green back.

(WrongWayCharlie........)