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Veteran Advisor

Where from here ?

Hello boys and girls in internet land.
How are things at your ponderosa ?
Here it is almost a month into the new year.

Well where do we go from here ?

Ole "eagle eye" must be pretty well bugered up
For being gone this long.

Cold...any reports on livestock ? Then in other areas
Thoughts of winter kill

Markets....they are there...outlooks not pretty.

Looking at the moisture profiles here, highest
For a number of years, we should at least have
A good start. Might be the year to plant feed.
Should be up and done, in case it gets dry
Again.

At 8.50 a bu for beans, can you afford $60 seed
And they tell me I need to spray 3 times !!!!

Then the insurance cost
.
I don't even want to look at a corn budget

Have you sent in your publishers clearing house
Entry ??
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10 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Where from here ?

I think everything`s gonna be alright, I don`t mean $7 corn again or $99/ton 28% or 300 bushel per acre yields, but if you do your diligence, don`t get behind the 8-ball, it`ll work out. 

 

Puxatawnny Phil might not see his shadow and spring is around the corner.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UBj4Rbq3ZI

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Where from here ?

My own feeling is it's going to be tough going this year.  We may end up with lots of beans and more than enough corn.

 

It's hard for me to see any big price swings to capture.  

 

The old story of lock in the best prices one can find and work on minimizing input prices without cutting needed crop nutrients.

 

Nothing easy about any of this.

 

I have given my broker some sell orders up where i can make some money.  I've decided on conventional corn and have a herbicide program that will hopefully not break me.  Will the herbicide plan work and what will I actually get the crops sold for is of course still up in the air.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Where from here ?

Not seeing anything on the farm websites but on a trading platform newswire it stated that during negotiations with china, the vise premier stated that they would buy 5 million tonnes of soybeans from the us per DAY, and that purchases have already started. If I calculated correctly, they would buy our entire supply in 27 days.
Could someone check my math and correct me if I'm wrong?
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Honored Advisor

Re: Where from here ?

Your math is ok. His statement may well be a poor translation.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Where from here ?

All I know is I sold beans yesterday so this is my usual position
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Senior Contributor

Re: Where from here ?

Thought about buying them back?
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Senior Contributor

Re: Where from here ?

Keep the cash in your hand, and buy back with earnest money. Also no storage
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Senior Contributor

Re: Where from here ?

Thinking out loud. The news stated that they have already begun to buy.
So how long ago did they start? Usda has been shut down since dec? Perfect time to gobble up supply cheaply with no one watching. So in reality they have had ample time to buy our entire crop at bargain prices without usda noticing or reporting. By the time the usda catches up with reports the deal has been done and they have a nice stockpile for the year. By the time they start moving them trade deal is done and beans are shipped tariff free. So how much of this would they actually use? How much would they stockpile and report as carryover as they have done with corn stockpiles in the past.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Where from here ?

You're likely right that a lot of talk and speculation will occur over the next week or so, with nearly 50% difference in projected soybean carry-out as one example.

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