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Veteran Advisor

Re: Where is little tigger at

as you know, i have subscribed to Gann Global Financial - James Flannigan -- so he fires out emails occasionally when in a mktg campaign...in the process - gives out some good historical info.

 

he had this last bear ranked #4 out of 20 since 1900 time-wise........for that reason, he and so do I - I for other reasons, too, feel this new uptrend might last at least "several months."

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Honored Advisor

Re: Where is little tigger at

When you are doing your charting Don't forget  to factor in inflation.

 

30% would not be out of line since 2000 and more realisticly 40%

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Where is little tigger at

precisely,

your point, for sure Hobby - our $5.00 Corn today is not even the same universe as when charts took out $5 and above in 1996.

 

i won't try to be as concise as "the new $4 is the old $2" but the playing field now is in the NEW millenium theater.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Where is little tigger at

 

Hobby, a 50% advance from inflation would make $3 the new $2. And yes, we had trend line yields in corn last year basically, that is not a good crop. A good crop would be 8% above trend, or 177/178. Not predicting that but it is one end of the spectrum that is overdue statistically. It is far more likely than anything sub-155.

 

How Flanagan labels his moves becomes important CX. This move vertical down since 2012 is a long run which is why many of us saw high odds for a low in January. After this leg up, Flanagan will start a new count, it will not be added to the old count. I like his history but he does NOT offer any advice for farmes trying to protect the value of products produced. This is a different discipline.

 

Did you ever study what happens the second year after a drought in corn, or the first year after one in beans?

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Where is little tigger at

time,

yes I've studied many different factors - most technical & economic - per USDA the beans produced near record yields last year even with the paltry rainfall 8/1 -9/15....so maybe the genetics in beans have become so robust? --- i remember you & i both thinking 35-38 bpa in beans @ best -- based on the lack of precip in those 6 weeks - ended up being 43 or so...

 

...bottom line in soy -we are not dealing with the same genes whatsoever from even 10 yrs ago.

 

i only give a certain weight to analogue years-not too much (1 or 2 yr after drought, etc.) b/c so many other factors can trump that imo.

 

best word to describe my tech discipline is BALANCE - was taught -seen-practiced the s/d balance can be found on ANY x-y axis with NO other information. funny, my results are better when i have "blinders on" to weather-all other info....BUT b/c i find ALL the other info so fascinating + CONVERSING WITH THE PRODUCERS, i over-balanced on that, if you will.

 

eg. i over focused on late planting last yr. and day to day operational details of what you guys do. my ancestors were producers.....i have that in my blood, too.

 

at the end of day, my gem is the tech specialty i was priviledged to learn/know - it is the Da Vinci code of tech - much of it's beauty is the simple natural-ness of it. my issue has been sticking to IT'S discipline b/c i become enthralled with all the details of grain production.

 

over the last year, just had to remind myself that i have many instruments at my fingertips - and it's a pattern i look for - could be in beans, SPY wkly options, coffee, or bat scat (if it was traded liquid enough)

 

yesterday, my pattern indicated a sell in equities.- i didn't trade this strike, but one close to $$$ in SPY increased in value 17 times from begin to end of day...

 

This pattern is manifesting on the wkly bean chart in a rare sense - much like it did in 2003-04 - i posted this chart at 1 point. 

 

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