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Veteran Advisor

Where's This Corn Market Going?

Every once in awhile, I like to run the traps of my sources and get a feel from them on what their crystal ball is telling them about the corn market. Here's what I caught this time. Take a look, if you have a moment, and then weigh in with where you think this thing is going?

 

Full story:  Where's the Corn Market Going?

 

Thanks in advance,

 

Mike

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11 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Where's This Corn Market Going?

The short answer:  to hell

 

The long answer:  these folks don't have a clue

I read what the guru's were saying....granted they more than likely make more on the markets, have more gimo's and gadgets than

I do, and rub shoulders with the bto's and those in the trade..........

but here I sit, looking at the window......and snow falling........with work still to do, but 70's on the way in a few days......I read and

reread the comments, and I don't quite understand where they are coming from.

AGAIN......according to them, there is no question........it is going to be a huge harvest.......piles on the ground all over, etc...etc.

They also don't even talk about the export volume and pace of the crop......and more than one keeps pointing to exports, that 

exports are key.....yet, a solid fact is, a vast majority of corn is consumed here, better than 75%.   When more than 75%

of your sales are local, you should be looking at that demand, rather than the export market........the traders, usda and our

"experts" just can't crasp that......partly because it's the way everyone else talks and they don't want to be out of line.

The funny thing, i'm told things have changed, the market has changed everything has changed.......but me

I still wear my boxer briefs, I pull on my overalls one leg at a time, I put both socks on and then both shoes on.

To listen to those today, I should put my overalls on then my underwear, and put on one sock and then one shoe.....

if there were be a fire, i'd be running around on one leg and not have my underwear on.......

to listening to all the "experts".....I have to think and do different.

we are told to do different........then why cant our commodity people, and the others hold themselves to the same ?

we no longer need to lean on exports for getting rid of the corn crop........we've got cattle, hogs and chickens to feed

the corn to......and now we make moonshine........the likes of which some ole moonshiners would just smile and giggle

when the saw the size and amount of sprits (ethanol) made today.....yet.......we still talk about exports that is key.

today, the old norms of hedging or position hedging is gone, today it's get in get out, to generate added value, and

some of the postions they want to do, by making 6 trades or more, are nuts (for others than them) due to their

commission.....

and as for those market experts.....since we are supposed to be so much different.....have they changed any ?

no......so a weekly newsletter (when we are told things are in operation at the speed of light (or electron)  ??

now who is stuck in the 70's ????

 

where is corn going.........do you want to know where it SHOULD go or the way it will work out ?

 

With the stories I have been told, I don't think the crop is as large as some think.....and with the huge demand.....we SHOULD

be seeing some nice rise in the price.........but listening to all the EXPERTS......little if any hope.....hey think 10

to 15 cents is really something.....

 

see at least I learned something from them.....how to go on and on, and still say nothing !!!!

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Where's This Corn Market Going?

Hence the opioid crisis how else is anyone supposed to deal with this market. Don’t think it’s not partially responsible wake up.!.
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Honored Advisor

Another question or two...

#1)  How many millions of bushels of corn is literally laying on the ground in Nebraska after this last few gale force wind days (just the ears not the whole plant)?

 

#2) how many millions of bushels in south west Kansas are unusable or unfit for anything other than to be burned in a coal fired power plant? Funonicin levels almost off the chart.

 

The deck chairs are being rearranged as I type this on this sinking luxury cruise ship we on.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Where's This Corn Market Going?

Hobby. On another website photos of the neb
You were talking about and options. I guess
They cut what they can, then take it up, then
Run thru the machine.

Two good points, crop loss (and only halfway point)
((Usually down hill from here, don't you cut your best first ?))
And disease
Alot of dryland corn chopped in these parts.

Seem to me I saw some data that showed we would
Be close to use=production
That "should" increase prices
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Where's This Corn Market Going?

Hobby, how wide spread was the wind damage? I heard about it but have no idea how big of an area it was. Do you think it's millions of bushels lost?
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Honored Advisor

Re: Where's This Corn Market Going?

I don't know exactly BUT it seems to be From north to south across the whole state. Only have second hand reports of fifty to 100 bu  acre of  yellow on the ground.

 

Some have talked of combining it then going back and raking it into windrows and running a dummy head and running all that dirt and everything back through their combine again. Seems to be a predominantly Pioneer issue from what info I've gathered, but I haven't actually seen it. 

 

Sixty/seventy mile an hour winds are never a good thing on a mature crop.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Where's This Corn Market Going?

A better solution is to rent a 15" corn head from Calmer's and then you harvest it at a 45 degree angle in to the direction of lodging. Probably only loose 10 bu/ac that way, some areas even less. We did this on our Ohio farms after the hurricane leveled it in 2012 and it worked really well. That probably isn't fair, we ran at 1.3 mph on 200 acres with a 20' head, so "really well" is only compared to the alternative! :-0)

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Honored Advisor

Re: Where's This Corn Market Going?

What has happened is the stalk is still standing it just slipped the ear out of the husk and is now laying on the ground .

The ground is coated in yellow.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Where's This Corn Market Going?

Yes, that is a Pioneer genetics problem. The farmers should be filling claims with the Big Pee, they will at least get next years seed free, plus crop in covers this year. 

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