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Veteran Advisor

Where's This Market Going

Soybean markets are trading with a 9 in front of them. The wheat market is rallying on crop concerns. The corn market is trying to use demand as a spark plug. How long can the higher momentum last? Is this a pretender or contender move up?

 

We are six trading days away from one of the most watched reports on March 31. Keep in mind, this Friday (Good Friday) means that the week is shortened. Pre-positioning into the Planting Intentions Report could start early.

 

So, where's this market going?

 

Mike

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13 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Where's This Market Going

Not sure if I'd call a $0.05 move in the wheat a "Rally", but at least it's moving in the right direction.  If We'd have a month of Sundays with "Rallies" like that we might get closer to the production price.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Where's This Market Going

Where is this market going ?..........ah, i thought this was a family show, so I can't say what I'm thinking

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Where's This Market Going

New corn chart looks like they do not need ant corn. The corn price below last fall. With a slope down like that, the report will not be relevent.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Where's This Market Going

I imagine new crop sales have been very slow, so there about has to be a little rally maybe upto 90% of C.O.P to get especially all the fringes planted.  No one likes to forward sell below COP, but if they can get close and "buy a call" or whatever it is that the smart people do, is the best we can hope for or risk selling a buck cheaper this fall.

 

CRP rates are competitive with cash rents in cases, so there isn`t a whole lot of bend there, "Uncle" will pay up to $300/acre and the US Treasury is your gaurantee.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Where's This Market Going

After being bearish for over 3 years, it is TIME to become nuetral, or bullish, corn and wheat. Beans are usually a year behind. It is very unlikely for corn to be a $1 lower than today next fall. More likely it is a 50 cents higher (which is only $4 cash after all)

 

just my informed opinion....if that is worth anything.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Where's This Market Going

Well I for one hope you are right Time.  I just hear gurus quoting Elwynn Taylor`s predicted 168 nat corn yield and ElNine lasting at least into late summer, adding to the yuuge carryout of corn, promising to cash corn into the 2`s this fall.   We need $4 corn, this is for sure..I suppose to get to $4 fall cash corn it will take alot of leaves falling from the trees, capitulating at $3.60 new crop cash?

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Where's This Market Going

Time, it is how the farm is structured. 4 dollar corn can be a pipe dream to the farmer who is well structured as much as 3 dollar corn for the end user. I think it is to late to change now. However, the new go go bankers on the block who pushed margin on cash flow and not debt to equity have people in a pickle. No body understands varible cost and fixed cost. The horror stories coming out just make me nervous. I do not like to see anyone exit. The problem is I see no way out for someone who have high fixed depreciating assets and no equity.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Where's This Market Going

Shaggy98,

 

How the heck have you been? Still working the night shift? It's great to see you on the board. What's the wheat crop look like for the folks that you talk to?

 

Mike

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Where's This Market Going

New-crop soybeans are rallying. That contract is up 50-cents since the first of March. Are we buying soybean acres?

 

Mike

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