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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Which way the markets

When everyone gets back from all these long weekends which way are the markets going to go?

 

I will take a stab at predicting that after the holiday rest we will trade a little higher at least for a while.

Soys have the best chance but think corn will turn up for a day or so.

Wheat may have turned the corner from a seasonal low but am hearing reports of exceptional yields of soft wheat as the combines start to move further north so that may hold prices down a little longer.

 

Further out is anyones guess. Weather will be the big factor as we go through the summer.

 

Where do you think we are going to go?

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4 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Which way the markets

I think you`re right, Canuck cooler heads will prevail and realize that the selloff was over done.  You know the Linn Group said "87.2 mil acres"  for the sake of discussion let`s say their number is closer to correct, the USDA will be in a unrecoverable tail-spin.  It`s kinda like if you come home really late and your old lady is standing at the door, you know you have to lie, but in the middle of your whooper you realize you went a little too far.  Well sir, your only hope is to do a "resurvey"  of the events to make it a little more believable.  Seriously though there needs to be alot more transparency with how they arrive at these numbers, like the teachers used to say "Show your work!".  If Linn Group turns out closer, maybe these reports should be farmed out to them. 

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rusureofit
Frequent Contributor

Re: Which way the markets

The fact that they admit that they are going to resurvey tells me that they know that the numbers are off.  I had two neighbors here that if they had been surveyed by June 10th would have said they were planting corn on two fields that they hadn't been able to plant by then.  after the 15th they gave up and one planted beans and the other one was seeding oats yesterday for a cover crop as he took the prevent plant option on that corn field.  Because of this I think the markets will turn up somewhat but not as fast as I would like (still have a little old crop to sell sitting in the elevator, my bins are empty) since it will be awhile till we know the truth of how many acres there are and what shape they are in.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Which way the markets

Wheat just completed a 27 tday collapse in beautiful harmonic fashion. Our old friend Get-A-Life would love the squaring of time and price on Friday. Its collapse is over. The low might not be in, but it is no longer a time to fear the downside..

 

 Just like June 1st was a terrible time to take price risk in wheat, we are close to a likely 90 cent rally which farmers should use to sell and capture the carry. The bear market is likely not over by any stretch, but storing wait and sell the carry on a rally is just good business. Of course, this is easy to say if you didn't take price risk earlier, ie you have $3.00/bu or so in your bank account to help pay storage costs.

 

C/Sb will all be about rainfall. I've been saying for months cz would gap below 6.25, which it has done. Very high odds it recovers to that level before it fails on normal rainfall. The crop is late, but looks very good in the east. jmo.

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BrookfieldTwp
Contributor

Re: Which way the markets

Agrimoney.com reports that the corn and soybean markets were up in China overnight.

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