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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Who is left to sell this thing

Scary part is what if the funds


turn their net long position into a net short position
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Nebraska Sandhiller
Frequent Contributor

Re: Who is left to sell this thing

Bin sweeping are getting scarce in western Nebraska.  There are train loads of corn from elsewhere being shipped in  to western Nebraska.  I wonder if elsewhere has enough corn to last until the combines start to roll.  New crop will start getting used as soon as it is harvested.


@Palouser wrote:

I hear basis is positive in parts of Nebraska due to feed lots needing corn.

 


 

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425Cat
Advisor

Re: Who is left to sell this thing

They could , they may have started already, even so they will eventually cover.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Who is left to sell this thing

I thought all the extra corn was in Nebraska, Miinesota, and the Dakotas.....   Where is this so-called 1 billion bushels of corn carryover?  I got news for you...it ain't in the eastern corn belt either..... Have to call USDA out on this one.......but,  I'm sure they won't answer.  For an agency that makes the market move after every report,  just who do they answer to?

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Who is left to sell this thing

That 1+ byn was as of September 1......the industry uses 300+ myn bushels per day......

 

this was NOTHING like 1996.....this year was more about dislocation of supply rather than running out

 

due to our poor crop in SC/SE Iowa in 2010, we were supposed to run out of corn this year......in reality, we spotted more old crop corn (over 700,000 bushels) in September than we did in May, June, and July combined!

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Nebrfarmr
Veteran Advisor

Re: Who is left to sell this thing

I often am one of the last in the neighborhood to empty out the last little bit of corn.  Since I have livestock, I always try to have at least SOME leftover into fall, and then clean things out the last month or so before harvest.  This year was especially kind to me, but I have had calls from feedlots that haven't bought corn from me for years, just on the off chance I'd have a load or two, just to get them by until harvest.  The local Co-op was effectively out of corn for over 2 weeks, having just enough on hand to cover corn their customers had contracted for physical delivery.  Their drying charges as of right now are pretty favorable.  The Cargill in the same town has been mailing out 'free drying' certificates to some of their better customers, I assume in an effort to get corn in early.  My cousin got one of these.  It says he can deliver 5000 bushels of corn to Cargill, from September 25 to October 15, at 30% moisture, or less, and they will only take 'shrink' off the corn, there will be no drying charges.  No idea how many of these got sent out,  I don't deliver wet corn, so I knew I wouldn't get one, but I know they are out there.

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Who is left to sell this thing

They did that in Renwick a number of years ago. They took in corn up to 30 % and such a god awful mess they had. It wouldn't run out of the wagons or trucks nor the dump pits. It's a wonder they kept any of their help at the local coop. Of course part of the problem was they didn't keep a tight control on the wet corn as some farmer plugged loads with corn that was just over the moisture limits.

 

I didn't participate. I figured the commercial hog plants needed corn and I would wait until I could hear the feeder lids bang some two miles away.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Who is left to sell this thing

So Ray, I believe you are correct on the fact that the extra bushels of corn are in the wrong place......but where do you think 1 billion bushels of corn is hiding?   That is a huge amount of corn to hide.

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Who is left to sell this thing

It's not "hiding"......it was there on Sept 1 and much of it got consumed in the last 30+ days.....

 

in spite of the fact that we were literally out of corn in 1996, the Sept 1 carryout was still listed at 400+ myn

 

there is a substantial amount of corn that can be held by ethanol plants, processors on Sept 1, plus the corn that is in rail cars in transit.....plus a lot of us had contracted old crop corn for delivery in September that kept coming every day of the month....

 

good luck with the conspiracy theories.....

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pritchh
Senior Contributor

Re: Who is left to sell this thing

those people who have not sold yet

 

INDEX funds being hqrvested,, 2nd and 3rd cutting to go.

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