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perspec
Veteran Contributor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

Up Smiley Happy

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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

SW, farming for profit and using markets to lock in or enhance that profit sound smart to me.  If one uses a long-term view of marketing, it is pretty much pure hedging.

 

Getting hung up on short-term market moves turns us into traders.  Most of us aren't trained or proficient at trading and can get taken to the cleaners.

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

confused...on this website....they are now saying north central Kansas wheat is in now in the 40's.........yesterday we were 39.....

how can we change that data ?

they now think wheat is going to do the 40's in western ks ????

 

this is BS

 

how could one thing be one, yesterday, now we changed, and now we say where the real storm was, will be better than the

fair wheat of yesterday ????

 

I'm sorry folks......if you want to make fake news, take lessons from the pro's in the white house.......

 

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

here is the twitter feed for the wheat tour

 

www.twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=default&q=%23wheattour17&src=typd

 

what are the odds they are going to end up saying it's going to be a record crop ?

 

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perspec
Veteran Contributor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

Some of the fields were snow covered and some were laying flat.  So bad that the tour couldn't make an accurate yield estimate.  They are just going to leave those yields out of the wheat tour yield estimate.  Wow.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

Jim I totally agree..... spec or day trading is not a goal.  But,  the odds are much better than a casino, and the action is on your computer...joking truth.

 

Wheat is just a different cat.  I find it hard to forward contract wheat.  Selling on the board is easier to get out of.  (drought, hail, and freeze) weather risk.

It is a cheap cost, flexible use, high risk crop ....  

And it is a hard crop for us to store. There is another crop coming in just 60 days that will pay well for our storage. (corn, milo and beans all with an enduser FOB with nice markup)

Wheat also is a low volume crop........ that 10K we bought back for a trade fee covers over 300 acres of production in much of kansas.

Buying it all back on the board and selling the physical, is a reduction in risk from pre to post harvest.......with no handling charges, no storage, and no quality deterioration.  If the futures price is low and the local price is well below corn the downward risk is also low(with an ear to real news).  I set it out there as far as it looks good and look for opportunities to add a few dollars to those acres.  If I do it cost me two trade fees.  If it goes down I have the option to sell it at any time.  But think about it..... I got the sale price up front, if I had put it in an elevator .... even our elevator... to gain price would have 50 cents a year just in storage costs.  So I got a few cents of down side cushion to take a year to see a better price option and the use of the $$.  

Buying options to take away the down side risk is expensive. And we bought this 10K as wheat was just above the usda loan rate....how much down side risk can there be?  inventory is not moving now.

 

If the futures price is $5.50+ local bid or better I seldom own or sell wheat on the board because of its production risks and world market unpredictability.  But mostly because we are above the COP.  I am comfortable with a profit and move on to marketing the fall crops.  

Futures don't care about COP but I do... It helps point out commodities that are facing changes and keeps me out when I have a profit.

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

Jim in this example we wouldn't be getting hung up on short term moves if there wasn't "intervention" in the news.

 

The Wheat tour is always a realistic antithesis to farmer pessimism.  It is a media opp for KSU to show how wonderful the "Bread basket is"

 

It tends to be optimistic on an annual basis.  And sometimes we need that because the surveys are biased as well... Smiley Happy

 

The timeing of it to this weather event was just an opportunity for us to emphasize the effect of generated and speculated "news".  If we are going to market we cannot ignore what we want to and listen to what we want to.  But we must evaluate and understand that the weather event is going to impact wheat bushels and the tour will not.  But both will impact price....so we cannot just sit on a position mentally and ignore stuff.  The technology has given media (from twitter to papers) so much more opportunity to make impact.  And they may have to make impact to survive.  Trump is right in this point I think, we must evaluate and discern what we read of see, because much of it is generated by opinion or agenda all around us and it affects every aspect of our economy.   So before I get dragged off this plain.

I appreciate the wheat tour--- It gets the acedemics out in the field...... we will now think about the amount of disease, etc. And be reminded that wheat is a strong tough crop.  I have never meet anyone who can predict yield well.  just potential

 

Next news item I am looking for is the harvested acres.......... how many acres were actually grazed out(by fire, or poor crop, or low prices.)  How many insurance claims ---- how many acres get destroyed to plant a different crop. How many acres go to silage because it is on the ground, or get baled.

Never chear a position.... but looking at a chart..... this commodity is still looking for reasons to end a 4 year slide to loan rate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

Notice wheat exports this morning well above expectations.  The weather story I assume.

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING !!!!

 

A 46.1 YEILD IN KANSAS.....THIS IS ABOVE THE 5 YEAR AVERAGE !!!!!!

 

REMEMBER I SAID LAST NIGHT WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF A RECORD CROP !!!!

 

WHEAT IS DOWN 20 CENTS......SO WE ARE BASICLY BACK BEFORE THE STORM, AND THE STORM DID DAMAGE.........

 

THIS IS JUST A PILE OF #$%!

 

 

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

can take 150 myn off the HRW crop and still have sub $5 wheat

 

agree with SW that harvested acres is next X factor

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