cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

Spoken like a true commercial Ray :-) 

I would take a cheapo forecast as being totally biased as well, so ignore him.

My contacts in wheat country suggest the damage won't be know for another 14 days. Does it stand back up, likely yes. Were stems broken, sure but the remaining stems have unlimited moisture.

The tale is not yet written.

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

Yes but.
Don't get lost in judging the news.
-20. Then. +5 on a Friday.
I'm asking is one day all the tour is going to affect? Or
Did the traders who want a position facing a weekend just tell us they still think wheat is a buy?
I'd probably renown the position on Monday morning if the overnights Sunday are up watching news for 48 hours, a committee suggestion.

Jim, I know that sounds like spec thinking and risky. I have addressed the risk part before
But getting out and in just negated one piece of opinion news. If the tour drives the market back to our 4.38. We stay out. One day down is just a reaction.
Let's call this old school high speed trading.
then I'm looking to get out 10 cents down on solid info or sit for another 30 cents. Similar to what you said on beans.
0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

Reown. I don't spell good but spellcheck thinks I'm an idiot.
0 Kudos
perspec
Veteran Contributor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

Leaving projected yields out from snow covered or laid down wheat by the wheat tour was a big Silly!  You expect to get a respectable yield estimate when you leave out the 15% of acres under the worst conditions?  I believe most of the acres will recover with some yield loss but the most harm will come from disease pressure due to the wet conditions.

 

The wheat tour does not adjust harvested acres.  The storm has had no effect on the wheat crop so far!

0 Kudos
smokeyjay
Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

It is easy to be critical of the process of a yield survey, but difficult to know how to adjust for an unknown factor.  There was enough anecdotal evidence via participants and farmers surveying their own fields to know damage was severe in large areas.  Some farmers did a broken stem count and found at least 40 percent were broken and not likely to recover.  Tour participants agreed with that observation.  

 

Some areas were just laid over and did not have severe wind damage and breakage.  Other areas were severely damaged.  

 

Remember, a tour like this is very random and not a scientific test.  I've observed these tours enough to know some years they are low, other years they are high.  But they have also come close to the real yield as well.  

0 Kudos
smokeyjay
Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

One big unknown in this is disease pressure.  Tour participants noted high incidence of wheat streak and barley yellow dwarf.  There was also tan spot and root rot noted in some  fields.  

 

Plus, I've seen it before in similar circumstances where stressed wheat, laid over, increases the chance of further disease pressure, which won't be known for two or three weeks.  Stands that come back up will also be delayed due to stress of recovery, making optimum yields unlikely.  

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

Weekend news starts well.  And it your in KS and sick of what you see in your field.......and even better sick of worrying about how the cash flow is gonna happen........ I highly recommend a little R&R at the Tanganyika Wildlife Park, Goddard Ks with the younger folks in your family. Not a Zoo... it is an interactive educational experience with a few of the animals in our world.... 

 

Humor & news missleading headlines  section.

French election: Emmanuel Macron condemns 'massive' hack attack --- How many decades will this be the excuse.. If your a vegas better...expect Macron to loose.  Embarassing what we say when we think no one is listening.

50,000 face bomb evacuation in Hannover---------  I hate reading 4 paragraphs to find an editor totally misled a decent article

How Puerto Rico went Bankrupt, 123 Billion in debt........Good read and ironic coming from news media that ignores the US debt problem

Futures File: Wheat storms higher after snow......Des moines  ignorance on the subject gives false and contradictory data i.e. 50 m bu loss in ks as opposed to the Ks Wht tours 185 m. bu leaving out the worst losses. ----- I seldom read this but it points out how we need to scan sources and not assume the writers do research.

 

 

Opinion based information:

Damaged U.S. Wheat Won't Dent Global Glut

 

 

 

crop  size or priceing information:

U.S. flour millers scramble for high-protein wheat on quality fear....  interesting data but terms like "robust" are mean no data available

U.S. whole wheat flour outturn rebounds in first quarter

COLUMN-Plenty of downside risk to Kansas wheat tour yield -Braun  ....I found this in the India times but it is a creation from a reuters writer in Chicago.  Best description of the Ks wheat tour outside of Smokey.. I have read.....Wish those de Moines guys could read.

 

Stay aware of our world:

The fabulous Apple Cash Machine 

 

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

WEDNESDAY -thursday

 

morning news ............. weather  -------- SW region rain 30% tuesday , 60% wednesday, 50% thursday 

 

Pretty strong possibility  when it is 6 days away to get a prediction that high in the panhandle area....

 

More coming..

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

Expectation for wheat sales were exceeded with strong numbers last week and local unitrain loader was loading ground piles to rail cars.
0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Wht on the upward bounce of the dribble.

This week
0 Kudos