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Veteran Advisor

Re: Will Corn Prices Increase A Lot In 2013?

RSW......could you send me a list of the books your teacher used in math class????

 

Because they sure do "compute" differently than the real world...

 

Let's see.....Iowa grows about 14 myn acres of corn......if the shortfall is 60 bushels per acre (from 180 down to 120), then the production loss is 840 million bushels, not the 1.5 Byn you wrote.....

 

I'm beginning to understand how you came up with NC Iowa losing 500 myn of corn production last year!!

 

Ray J

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Will Corn Prices Increase A Lot In 2013?

I guess I should have pointed out, that if a feedlot needs (for ease of figuring) 100,000 bushels of corn, and has contracts for delivery from farmers who have the grain (which is the situation locally), they can play the market for those last 10%, or may have time to find alternatives.   Think of it this way, say a steer needs 10 bushels of corn to feed out.  The feedlot manager I know well enough to disclose prices told me they had 90% booked at $6 or less.  So let's say for they got it for $6, which comes to $54 to feed the steer 90% of the way to market.

If corn stayed at $6, it cost them $60

If corn went up to $7, it cost them $61

Take corn all the way up to $10, and that steer cost them $64 to feed, which in the grand scheme of raising that steer, raises their costs by less than 7%  If fed cattle prices stay high, I see no reason for them to not just buy the last bit of corn to feed it out, especially if they bought a call against their last bushels.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Will Corn Prices Increase A Lot In 2013?

The more interesting question is whether they have all of this coverage in the cash markets...

 

or own future and still have to originate the cash......from the comments you've made it appears more of the former..

 

but a lot of folks got educated in 95/96 when they owned futures and still had to find the cash to feed livestock!

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Senior Advisor

Re: Will Corn Prices Increase A Lot In 2013?

Rsw seems to have a huge disconnect in getting his stories to compute in the real world..........its a common theme.........

 

The truth has caught up with his mouth........

 

You would think spending 120K per year on tuition some of those smarts would rub off......lmao......

 

Maybe he will give you a ride in his significant others (not sure if hes man or woman or which team he/she plays for) Lexus and you can chat about it...........

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Will Corn Prices Increase A Lot In 2013?

makes sense.................there is stiff resistance on the Live/Fed spread at minus 8 cents....this should be tested perhaps in Mar-Apr

 

that's when dynamics might become more tense..................

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Senior Advisor

Re: Will Corn Prices Increase A Lot In 2013?

As to the OP.........some feel that number was a way for the USDA to sandbag 300M in the report............the truth usually lies somewhere in between.........but fact is, USDA is and was outta bullets........they are just hoping we get out the gate before 2013 new crop comes online...........IMO, we have basically run outta corn last summer, and will this summer too........with imports of corn and ethanol, along with some plants going idle now, and the crazy bids we saw........its the same as running out...........

 

Be interesting to see it we see it flexed before the new marketing year.....

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Senior Contributor

Re: Will Corn Prices Increase A Lot In 2013?

Look guys, what did was take 100bu off a 220bu yield, and we have 15 Million acres of corn in Iowa. 100bu*15,000,000= 1.5 Billion bushels. Sorry, my fault, the normal or average yield in Iowa state-wide is 170 to 180bu. So take 70bu/acre off and you get 15,000,000 acres* 70bu= 1,050,000,000. Around 1 Billion bushels. Shoot me if you want for using a 220bu state-wide yield instead of the 170 to 180bu Average yield Iowa get during a good crop year. Still 1 Billion bushels is a good chunk of corn to lose, don't you think????

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Will Corn Prices Increase A Lot In 2013?

.......IMO the flexing is nearer than might be embraced by the establishment

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Honored Advisor

Re: Will Corn Prices Increase A Lot In 2013?

Rayjenkins, 

 

Don't expect a big list of books or anything else real out or rsw.

 

My favor was the day he said The owner should net 500 per acre on corn ground and the operator should be happy netting 300------------------Thats $800 spent per acre---or 114 bu at $7 corn and no bills paid yet .

 

That is a drive-by analysis of farming, by someone who has never planted a crop, but is an expert by association.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Will Corn Prices Increase A Lot In 2013?

Mizz Tiger- You own farmland in MO correct? I lived in MO for a few years. Seems everytime I drove south of the MO/Iowa state border my IQ Level fell by 40 points. Then when I drove north from MO back into Iowa, it went up 40 points again. Not sure why that is. One thing I do know about MO is that any state that has a state law saying it is ok to marry your 2nd Cousin and they filmed the movie "Deliverance" with Burt Reynolds in the state, you have to make darn sure to watch your backside. LOL!!!!!!!

Ok, to be serious, how close do you live to Kansas City? Are you close to Branson, MO?
 

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