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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Will Corn breakout?

How soon and how much?

 

My friend in north iowa tells me that our corn crop has to prove it can make 150 before we start thinking about 180. This is 100 miles north of DesMoines in the heart of God's country. And beans? it's time for rain,folks. I don't think Idalivered and mike are rain dancing. Not too much.

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13 Replies
NCcorntrader
Senior Contributor

Re: Will Corn breakout?

i think chances are becoming more likely. whispers of QE3 and articles about how commodities are "safe havens" wont hurt.

 

if Dec can break thru 735 i think we are looking to add another 60-70 cents. i dont think that will happen until Dec becomes the spot contract though, which I believe occurs Aug 30

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Red Steele
Veteran Advisor

Re: Will Corn breakout?

in my part of southern MN we have gone for just over four weeks now with a total of three tenths of an inch of rain. the big rains went north, south, east and west. The corn crop is pretty much decided...good ground will have decent yields, but nothing like we expect, and the poorer ground and corn on corn is going to be bad, I walked some of the fields yesterday and am not going to contract any more bushels, even if corn goes to $10 per bushel. These are the circumstances that can cause a market to explode...when you no longer have willing sellers, no matter what the price is.

 

The soybeans are setting pods, the early planted beans have some fill already. A nice rain, and warm temperatures for a month and we get decent yields. If the weather stays as dry as it has been, and/or Jack Frost comes to visit the first ten days of September, a potential disaster is brewing, especially on the late planted beans.

 

It is a year where if you did everything right, had the right ground, the right planting window, you are going to have a good year. Depart a few degrees from that scenario, and things might get ugly.

 

Prices don't mean a lot without bushels, and if the bushels have been contracted at lower prices, the screws get turned a little tighter.

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Will Corn breakout?

Red some of the corn I have been in looks to be about at the crop insurance garauntee. Is that what you are seeing?  Or is it worse than that?

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Will Corn breakout?

Krafty I hope it breaks out soon. Cause it already has lots of guys caught flat footed and I think it will seal the door on may big livestock entities. No way can they absorb 8+ corn. SO if the corn price goes up fast now these guys can get out before they lay in lots of corn eaters.

 

Hey and by the way I went dancin last night with my wife but I couldn't shake out any rain in the sky either! LOL

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rightone
Senior Contributor

Re: Don, looks real good in NE

and So Dak.

 

West River Dakota corn may not make 150 bu, but it will do 140 without much problem. MO.

 

E Dak, the good ground is mostly doubled eared ( good medium size ears ) on 95% of the plant pop.

  

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DW11
Veteran Contributor

Re: Don, looks real good in NE

Rightone,

 

You are talking about a drop in the bucket when you are talking about West River South Dakota corn.  As to the other side of the state, a couple of drops in the bucket in East River South Dakota, I have been in my fields and I am not impressed.  After a challenging start we have been in one of the garden spots of SD.  We have a combination of small ears, tip back, and small kernals.  Add to that we are running out of moisture fast.  I still don't think SD makes 140  on a state-wide basis.  My guess would be around 130 at this point.  We are not providing the missing corn here.  Great bean potential is declining with the lack of rain as well.

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rightone
Senior Contributor

Re: DW seem to me like NE might

count significantly.

Irregardless, many tend to not believe the crop failure hoopla the E farmers put out on corn every year bout this time.

 

Real world appears that even if this crop is a failure as spun by many farmers, it is likely the 3rd largest upcoming cc of record ( whether that becomes 1st, 2nd, 4rth or 5th is likely very immaterial considering the shape of the econ anway ).

 

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DW11
Veteran Contributor

Re: DW seem to me like NE might

Rightone,

 

I didn't say crop failure--I just meant not great in SD and many other places.  NE sounds like a good/great crop, but that is only one state.  Everybody else has significant problems.  150 is the over/under in my opinion. 

 

Now, I do agree with you that supply shortfalls may get trumped by demand disappearance given the volatility in the world financials.  I am actually thinking about doing some multi-year sales at current levels.  Not all obviously, but some percentage.

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rightone
Senior Contributor

Re: DW seem to me like NE might

guess I feel that So Dak, Minn, Wisc, are much better than most posters must.

IA btw I do think will have a new record cc,  Same for NE and perhaps Minn / Wisc too.

 

We'll see.

 

 

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