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Veteran Advisor

Will La Nina Affect Your 2018 Marketing Plans?

A cold, wet winter is often associated with La Nina in the northern hemisphere.

I'll take some moisture.  My tile are not running and I prefer, as I'm sure you do, to go into winter with a full soil moisture profile.  The La Nina should last long enough to soak up the ground after the spring thaw.  

 

It might freeze pretty deep here is we don't get some rain or snow to keep the frost line high.  A deep freeze and wet spring could mean delayed planting.  My first thought is it might delay getting dry fertilizer spread.

 

Well, I'm not going to be the farm one way or the other on La Nina, but I will keep it in the basket of things to consider.  La Ninas are sometimes volatile and that means unpredictable.  Traders love that, I"m personally not so sure I do but we'll play the hand we're dealt.  For right now, close to the vest. 

 

I have some sell orders in but I'm watching them.

 

 

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6 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Will La Nina Affect Your 2018 Marketing Plans?

La nina means dry here, so we may struggle to raise a crop.  We already ran out of moisture to get our last planted wheat up and established.  with prices where they are( i'm thinking we are seeing the bottom part of the price range) There will be NO cash contracting for the forseeable time.  Any hedges will be looked at as short-term, but in all likelihood we'll let the markets ride and see how that works.  I am using a mix of futures and options to re-own a portion of my corn and milo sales. Will that be right, or wrong?  time will tell.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Will La Nina Affect Your 2018 Marketing Plans?

Many things affect my marketing plans...

 

Weather is a biggie, it's usually always a #6 problem, a few years it was a #12 

 

No money in the checking account also has an affect.

 

#6 problem = 2 wet, 2 cold, 2 long = #6

 

Or

 

2 hot, 2dry, 2 long can also be a #6

 

Some years we get one early and the other later on =# 12.  Kind one of the joys of farming on the fringe.

 

A #18 has happened, but thankfully is rare.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Will La Nina Affect Your 2018 Marketing Plans?

What's a #1.....
Here I think #1 and #2 might mean something
Else....but in the marketing world...maybe not!!

Dry here. Some wheat not even up.. ponds are
Dry...not even a good frog pond
Drilled 300 ft well this year, might need couple
More comming year...no profit there !!

I've often wondered if a fellow should do a roll up until
Harvest
But how much will fees and the like cost ?


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Senior Contributor

Re: Will La Nina Affect Your 2018 Marketing Plans?

Driest early winter in northern North Dakota for 25 years. La Niña has turned out to be muy seco(very dry) for this hombre.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Will La Nina Affect Your 2018 Marketing Plans?

David Kruse is saying that this La Nina is a weak one and apt to disappear by our planting, so any rallies scaled up sales should be made.   He`s probably right, am I gonna listen to him? No, because I don`t what to settle for a sub-par price and then have to be quick on the trigger with expensive options to protect it.    But after this year, I`m of the mind that weather no longer matters...well, to a point.  

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Honored Advisor

Re: Will La Nina Affect Your 2018 Marketing Plans?

To answer the original question...........no.

 

When USDA says it matters........I will pay attention.........since they make the rules.

 

Until then........we'll just kick the can down the road.

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