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03-29-2017 06:00 PM - edited 03-29-2017 06:04 PM
ok I get it........ budget is not going to be an indicator of where the numbers will fall ......
So Jim so we're judging where we spend time
Here is some stuff that will show what to expect for 2017........ usda determines acreage planted not planters... and they correct almost never.
So they must be so good at that they catch every regional change Like this year the south will increase cotton acres and decrease corn and soybean acres...
But then notice 2011 and 2012 when corn acres planted raised each year even though the south reduced planting both years in corn.... and we ran out in the interior
And of course if it didn't happen in Iowa it didn't happen ---- yet corn stocks in 2013 dropped to the third lowest year in the last 30 years.
Planting acres are an unverifiable ingredient in the usda farming computer game...
It is really just the diversion from the real crop on hand to the immaginary crop here or in the world at large, LARGE
This is meaningless rhetoric.... Planted acres decline in the corn belt every year and increase on the fringe but not this year...........
Corn should be around 83-85 with the south, the upper plains and the dakota's all reducing acres.
Beans should be around 86 since they are loosing acres in the delta region and gaining acres on the fringe
Wheat acres planted should drop even more with fewer acres planted in the west and northern plains.... 2017 crop was 42 million acres planted....
Look for 2018 wheat planted in the fall of 2017 to increase acres planted as green wheat becomes the cheapest conversion to beef possible 2018 planting at 60 million acres as corn and bean acres continue to leave the high plains with lower prices.
That is where these prices and reported conditions should take us but I am absolutely sure usda will not go there
Look for usda to say 88 million for beans and corn at 93 million.............. and no one will care what the number is for wheat even if it is 42 M as we know it is.
03-30-2017 10:41 AM
With so much rain in the southern Corn Belt slowing early planting and rain slowing prep fieldwork in the central Corn Belt, is it possible the USDA's March survey results see big changes?
In other words, the weather may force more soybean acres than intentions?
03-30-2017 11:05 AM
I think "weather" will dictate any extra bean planting in the "I" states more than anything. Late Easter and cooler, wetter weather after already wetter than normal `16 summer, fall and winter may make beans the only option in some areas..mudded in June 1. But a couple weeks of warm and dry would do wonders too. Heck of it is, the best bean prices are gone and if things get wet you can knock a buck or two off this already depressed price.