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Advisor

Re: Will We Have A Sellable Rally?

Free trade, huh?
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Honored Advisor

Re: Will We Have A Sellable Rally?

Silverwheatie..."free trade"???   I think you meant to say "fairer trade". When you start with zero and 300% tariffs, and move to where we are now which still has mountains of tariffs against US goods, even ag goods, it is working towards fairer trade, not free.

 

About the only free trader in the world is the US, well it used to be the US, less so at this point. Our tariffs still don't come close to the rest of the worlds btw.

 

My bigger objection is the fact that Ag is being forced to suffer NEEDLESSLY. I have no problem requiring the Chinese to act better. In the process, a government with a $2Tril (opps....hard to keep up...the budget is now $4 Tril)  budget could certainly just raise the loan rate to $10 and $4 and wait for the world to pay a fair price. Probably cost the government next to nothing. Or do a market adjustment feature in an emergency ag appropriation. Heck, I can think of 10 easy ways to protect the farmer from being trampled under 2 elephants fighting over trade rules.

 

Ag probably wins when this is over, but I doubt it is over soon enough to help in 2018.

Senior Contributor

Re: Will We Have A Sellable Rally?

2018 this will affect ag for years.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Will We Have A Sellable Rally?

Ken,

 

No free trade!  Trump is making trade worse than it is!  I will not win this.  Because all tarriffs are is another tax.  That's all! Period. Trump is an idiot or else he is playing his supporters like a fiddle!

 

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Senior Reader

Re: Will We Have A Sellable Rally?

"when they capitulate"   or... IF they capitulate??   Keep in mind, the big cheeses in China don't have to worry about getting re-elected!   :-(

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Honored Advisor

Re: Will We Have A Sellable Rally?

Yes, tariffs are another tax, most often paid by the least able to pay them.

 

 

I think that we agree that making ag pay the price is not required.

 

We have always been the residual suppler, or supplier of last resort,

mostly because of our B2 bomber/F-15/drone led foreign policy.

That won't change regardless of who is in charge.

 

btw...I feel the pain as much as anyone else, we are dumb enough

to still have a hog farm for crying out loud. 

 

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Will We Have A Sellable Rally?

There are two ways we will have ANY kind of a rally. 1. The weather here will turn hot and dry until October for the entire US. 2. China does a complete 180 and comes begging for beans!  I'm afraid the first choice is probably more likely than number 2.   I guess there is a third option and that being the rest of the world would have a crop failure leaving us as the only provider of commodities. 

Looks like i should have sold out in 2012 or 13 and put my money in amazon stock or bitcoins!

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Honored Advisor

Re: Will We Have A Sellable Rally?

"Free trade" was the lie that sold the con.   And WTO complaints about american subsidization was the grease that made the lie easy to sell to the voters.  

It is similar to the next few months....... We will have grain prices $ 2.50+ below production costs anywhere in the world.  Exports wil go up .  The  producers will loose more $$ with every new metric ton sold and the Politicians who want to call it free trade will brag about how many metric tons are being sold.

 

And most of us are too stupid to be able to understand both factors.

 

For 20 years now "Free Trade" has meant the US looses on nearly every deal.   Why on earth has anyone thought "Free Trade" was good or free.

 

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