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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Win/Win situation?

It appears that with the soybean market rallying, the chances that China will cancel a large portion of their soybean contracts is lessened to some extent.   Hard to believe they would cancel and repurchase at higher prices.  Of course everything may not be as it appears. 

We also have more USDA predictions coming out later this week which will throw a curveball to farmers and the grain markets and help the Chinese buying cause.

Whatta you know, there's that word "predictions" again.  

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19 Replies
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Win/Win situation?

Yeah, and you're still fooling yourself when you use it.

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crophugger
Senior Contributor

Re: Win/Win situation?

Prejections projuction sp? We all dream of driving caddys and being Royals too. looks as though the carry is about to go neg. if we don't see some cancels soon. Wonder what the basis wii be come about 1st August in the interior.
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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Win/Win situation?

Gee thanks Jim.  I'll keep that in mind.

 

BTW, I project that I will keep calling them predictions and that you will keep reminding me of your opinion.

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Win/Win situation?

Calling things by their right name is not my opinion, it is representing reality.  Calling a projection a prediction gives one a false sense of marketing info and there is no logic to it.   

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farsider
Senior Contributor

Re: Win/Win situation?

the 10 year that was just released is a projection. A production report is considered a forecast, in other words a prediction.
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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Win/Win situation?

These really are important distinctions. A 'trend' is a fact to the degree the figures behind it are reliable. It's not a prediction, per se. But it can be used as a yard stick against previous trends for which we know the outcomes. Trends can be compared to each other to indicate the likelihood there will be an intersection that will affect the market - like exports, inventory and possible production conditions given current conditions.

As a producer and seller of physical I don't put much stock in daily or even weekly trends - unless I have a pending sale and looking for a trigger day.
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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Win/Win situation?

A prediction is defined as:  : a statement about what will happen or might happen in the future.  There are other defintions of prediction, and some include forecast or projection.  But, USDA never uses the term prediciton.  It only uses the term forecast and itexplains what goes into a forecast.  Many of the processes are very cut and dried and they say right up front they do not consider abnormal situaitons.  The forecast, for one thing, does not include long term weather predictions.  It uses certain methodologty that it admits are not always indicative of current reality.  For example, a report compiled on the first of the month may not include dramatic changes in planting that took place after the 1st but before the report was released.

 

Using the term prediction for a USDA crop production forecast is ignoring the process by which the forecast is made.  It does the use a disservice because it misleads one about waht the forecast is based on and how it is best used.

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Win/Win situation?

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Win/Win situation?

Predictions and projections are like financial statements and cash flow statements. They are a snap shot in time and may or may not indicate a final result. The projections are affected by rumors or facts as we progress through time. There are no absolutes and one shouldn't expect them.

 

Especially when the general concensus in your community swears that crops are terrible and the only price direction is  up!

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