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Honored Advisor

Winter wheat and when will moisture return

 

 image001.png

 

A visual to go along with the reality.

The wheat crop harvested in 2010 is the only good regional crop on this chart.  2013 froze out late 

It appears late freezes and subsoil moisture are not considered.  Pretty much a drive by assesment.

 

The 4 months left out of this chart are important and should not be ignored.

 

Will rainfall and snow pack ever return to the midwest????

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

Think we need to photocopy that chart
And had it out at the doors of the Cbot.

But for that crowd, we need to write
Which is the top of the page.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

That is a very interesting graph.  For the 2 out of 4 preceeding years when the crop was rated poorly, it did not recover.  Can anyone recall if that was because it did not rain in time, or if it did rain was the crop already too damaged to recover?  Was it winter kill, drought, or a combination?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

Elcheapo,

 

No one is at the CBOT anymore.  The floor is dead.  It is all electronic. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

It is hard to write in general crop terms, Canuck5.  The 2010 crop was good because it had strong winter moisture ahead of it.

In the western regions of HRW we did not get moisture to speak of, before the 2011 crop was harvested ------------ the underpinning reality for many of us is since 2010 we have planted and wintered with with less than 8 inches of wet soil below us every year since.  The 2011, 2012 and 13 crops were planted on moisture that should not have sprouted the seed.  Winter moisture has been just enough to get it to spring.  2013 was probably the best of the three but 17 degree temps mid may toasted it so bad we did not have enough stubble to get through the march winds.  2014 we had the best fall moisture(5 inches in Sept--- half of the years moisture in another dry year) since 2010, but only in small areas and the extreme cold and wind all winter has it turning brown as we warm up.  North of us in Ks  winter kill is widespread.  It takes good subsoil moisture and root structure to survive that much cold unless your getting a lot of snow. ---- and we did not.  

This has been going on long enough that folks thind three inches of snow is a lot.

 

2012 on the chart looks odd to me but maybe the central Ks/mid okla bread basket was better that we were out west.

 

I do not understand how the ratings start so high when there is drought years behind the planting,  but maybe optimism is a human trait rather than only a farmer trait.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

thanks for your perspective sw.  I now recall the summer drought you folks had in 2011.

 

If the weather were to be perfect from now until harvest, what would you say the G/E rating would do?  Can you foresee it climbing to 50%?   Or has winterkill prevented that?

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Senior Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

SW, if I recall correctly in 2011 we had nearly 20" snow in December to carry the wheat thru the winter and basically finish the crop. That was the first year that the drought really had a grasp on the central section of the state. The heavier wintertime moisture and early spring warmup enabled us to plant milo about 2-3 weeks earlier than normal only to be lost to drought later in the year. Some waited until right before crop insurance cut off date to plant milo and were fortunate enough to receive just enough rain to harvest 40-60 BPA dryland milo. Those of us that planted in the first two weeks of May cut 20 BPA and under or received 100% loss on their production.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

Perfectly right shaggy,  Just didn't get that snow sw....

The heavy heat --118 degrees and wind shriveled us in the head. or we might have beaten the 16 bu dry land avg we got and the 30 bu irrigated --- but we did not have much winter moisture .

 

Canuk5  I would look for it to be 20% if we get moisture to finish in the west half  ---better in the east ----someone else is a better source for central ks than I.

 

The west is bad and is not going to come back.  the fair to good area will increasse a little if that 2 inches comes this week.....If we get rain the irrigated will be ok.  But we are in a depleted state overall with irrigation water.  Much of the western ks area will need to save limited water for the summer crop or face the choice of making good wheat and hoping for rain help later.

 

Desperate moisture conditions persist.  We have pastures in sw ks that are only held together by sage brush ----- much of the good grass spots are blowing dirt ------- and have not seen a cow for three years.  Looks a little better to the east.  but an old friend at Gate, Okla. told me yesterday the pastures are the worse he has ever seen ----- he is 83 this year .

 

 

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

Looks like the eastern areas may get some

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

Those forecasting maps are only someone's colorful prediction of hope. We were also in the 1/2" zone 3 or 4 days ago and received only a sprinkle.

I've always said that I would stay optimistic until I have a reason to become a pessimist. Now I've changed my tune, I've become a pessimist until I've got a reason to return to optimism.
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