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Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

Today the market thinks we have enough wheat: higher ending stocks
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

I thought they made such a big deal of
The open outcry being the big thing.

What do they have now, a digital voice?
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

How does USDA make their weekly assessment of crop conditions?  Is it a survey of farmers, or do they have crop scouts who go out and look?  Since the reports are usually out on Monday afternoons, when is the assessment done?  Over the weekend?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

The more i glance at your chart -- #%@#%#@#^&*%!# -HOLY MOLY - it's what the statiticians would call a throw away.....you'd have to compare 30 yrs here to have any relativity........bu uuu ttt--yeh relativity is what he meant to saySmiley Sad

 

 

you know what just popped in the noggin' here, sw?

 

think back to your 2010-2011 WW crop -- beltwide

 

the chart sort of empirically quantifys amount of winterkill overall...not saying i think it's a linear (**bleep** for tat) comparison to g/e numbers -i.e.they declined by 43% from last fall.

 

does anyone remember the rough % of winterkill from the 2010- 2011 harvest??? if so, perhaps we can do some exptrapolating. Smiley Happy

 

thanks

 

 

 

 

c-x-1

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Honored Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

cx------ the 2011 "texas"drought and heat was almost a non event for usda------- a year of total denial.

 

Then in 2012 it moved into the corn belt and denial was not an option.

 

2013 was  "a record crop" no matter what the production is.

 

At least in 2014 they are finally reporting close to accurately on the severe cold this winter ------ especially in the areas without good snow cover.

 

 

The big wow is  --------------------- the number of long term records in climate conditions that have been set in the 3+ years since 2010.

 

low temp--winter of 2013-14, low rainfall--2011-13, high temp--2011.  And over a pretty vast areas in most every case.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

We were in the 80's today, I don't want
To think how much moisture was lost.
could get up to 1/2 inch, which will
Help, but we need a soaker, not a sprinkle.

What could happen, which a few years back,
The wheat was thin and not good, but cool
Wx and some moisture, and it filled out, and
Fair yeild.
This year don't look this way.

I think the key to the chart is the huge
drop

In my opinion, is not in good for wheat.
I have a friend "from the land down
" and things were nothing to write
Home about
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

sw,

agreed on most your points.

 

i'm taken by the various star sat pics i was pouring through on top of your ww g/e chart -- all pretty STARK

 

I compared "green-ness in ww areas 2006, 10, 11. 2013 & 11 are close but 14 takes the cake in growing areas.

 

the sedgewick 30% comment got my attn, as well -- the veg "health" is actually worse cntrl east belt than west in KA - suprised me.

 

also looking back at all the USDA balance sheets - you think half a bil bu of 13 corn "still in field"  The Masses seem to be confounded by corns strength - before you know it, ending will be close to a bil - mere 177 mil from last yr.

     time it's all said-done, USDA will have pulled a 1,000,000,000 bu Houdini on mkt. - from harvest-Aug?

 

Then we have beans - i know ending "ended up" 138 final in '09-think it was, but were they below 150 by Apr...?...not sure where to look that archive up for this time of year.

 

if winter kill in w is bad as some of these glimpses+maps illude, we could easily be down to 2006-7, 2007-8 ending their.

 

you know it's gonna be an interesting year, when, in addn to southern situation, Palouser is reporting winterkill in nw land-Eden of wheat country.

 

HANG on with all 20 is my overall.

 

didn't want to post anymore maps, But Brazil not looking too green for late maturing crops + 2nd crop either.  

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Senior Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

See the article I posted above. We are used to having very consistent wheat so we are generally conservative on what makes it into the good and excellent categories. Still, i would guess most years we are 50-60% good and excellent. Almost any year will get winter wheat above 80 bu in my area and 60 bu spring wheat is OK, though spring wheat is more variable. 100 bu isn't rare though it is never taken for granted.

 

But the article has the lowest numbers I've ever seen and we are still small. I've been through much of the production area here and have seen some ugly stuff. Beginning to realize there is some winter kill not far from me after going to pick up a tank. We are rolling here now for spring work.

 

I'm not quite ready to go whole hog yet but I think it's possible the wheat industry is in major denial. It would be neat to have the time to tour many of the affected areas because I would know by looking in most situations. But I have to go by the numbers too though some of the descriptions sound all too familiar.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

Good idea Pal, come on down to Kansas this weekend and ole Shaggy will give you the $0.50 tour, for an extra $0.50 I might even throw in lunch.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Winter wheat and when will moisture return

Come on guys. The more you talk about the wheat, the further down the price goes.............

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