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Senior Contributor

Re: Wolf, Wolf, Wolf

The topic pertains to marketing strategy in general, nit to your marketing, of which we know little.

 

I do not play the odds over a long period of time. I collect the info of reality on the ground as it comes in and 'count cards'. Then play the trends as they develop. You cite the last two years in wheat. Not good enough. I've made plenty by not following seasonals as signals dictated. I capitalized as an opportunist. You know that. I know that. 

No I don’t know that. All I see are endless postings suggesting W isn’t going down, vs it has.

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On-the-ground counts, but is built into mkt price. Fundamental trends, IE high prices incite greater plantings, which bring bigger crops and lower prices – has been the trend long ago developing now playing out.

Of course in tight supply yrs, prices hike and the %  hedges sold in winter are at less than current prices. Accepted and expected.

SEE 1980 . 2013.

 

The other obvious strategy is to use the 'seasonal' trend to bypass the lows and sell on the highs further into the marketing year - which has been a very good tactic, when knowing that supply trends backed that. Look at crop year prices and see the inclines.

Obvious to whom ? When are the lows? Spreading out marketings is what non-hero producers do!

This year changes? Adjust. You have to understand when the Russian drought changes the pattern, or 2007-8 comes along. You talked that down.

Which year? Someone here posst the Russian drought problem annually, see forum history. When Russia stopped exports, it was a SELL, not a new bull leg.  40 posts suggesting something bullish whilst the mkt declines, declines, declines, is for what purpose?   Or that EQYPT buying wheat isn’t bullish it is bearish.

Specs can do whatever they want. They don't really matter to supply and demand.

The spec advantage is do what they want when. Winners in W earn premium producers don’t . A grain producer can’t sell 100% of an ungrown crop, a %, yes.  

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Wolf, Wolf, Wolf

News flash Pritch. The market doesn't go down all the time either. It can't. Want to miss an opportunity? Stick w/ seasonals only. Your outlook is pretty much proof that anything really good isn't prepared for if going by seasonals. The great opportunities are outside the 'pattern' - by definition. 2007 was the perfect illustration of that. Counter seasonal.

 

You say 'known by whom?'. I say known by the 'watcher' and gatherer of information who has financial room to be patient - due to having successfully taken advantage of opportunities in the past.

 

The information I bring to the forum is ussually information that I know few will be aware of because it isn't a concern to the spec's shorter time frame or the market's biases. You don't like it - too bad. I have the info, and I can follow the many possible and developing trends. I can adjust and move with information I know to be reliable. I am not bound by 'probability' relating to seasonals. You do that.

 

Meanwhile, I'll count cards as they fall.

Senior Advisor

Re: Wolf, Wolf, Wolf

My last 5 crops harvested came along with an insurance payment, and that includes my first two crops harvested this year.  I've got one crop yet to be combined, and it looks to be a good one.  Milo for those who don't follow me.  It is going to be great if I can finally get a crop without an insurance claim.  If so, it will be the first since 2010.  Maybe I was doing to good of a job back then and my APH is way to high and I have become lazy in my management decisions.  Ya that's it, I'm almost certain the drought of the last 3 years had very little to do with my crop insurance claims.  Talk my crop down, that's a good one, we don't need to around here, our crops speak for themselves.

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