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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Word of warning on USFR Utterback Hunt

Yes, we all know Bob has a struggle with weight...got that, but him and Hunt make some very good points on US Farm report.

 

http://www.agweb.com/usfr/  

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20 Replies
Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Word of warning on USFR Utterback Hunt

Well known market advisors always want you to forward sell a crop before it is in the bin or even in the ground for that matter(2015).  Coming off a multi year drought that still isn't completely broken, I don't like selling anything that I don't physically have in my control.  Yes I might leave a significant amount of money on the table at times, but on the flip side, I could leave a significant amount of money in my pocket that is already made.

 

Marketing isn't a one size fits all plan, and I get the vibe that these advisors are out to help the big boys and you can't blame them since that is where a significant amount of the money to be made or lost is held.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Word of warning on USFR Utterback Hunt

Yes Shaggy, I haven`t done anything, just roll the dice.  But, I guess before one pulls the trigger on inputs, this is something you want to be aware of.  Greg Hunt usually has some positive to say on those shows, even he was sour.

 

Here`s Sue Martin on M-to-M, she says all corn needs is a "story" and it could quickly fill the gap.

 

http://www.iptv.org/mtom/episode.cfm/3947/video  

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Word of warning on USFR Utterback Hunt

Quite from the broadcast  "we better get up to speed on being globally competitive" ------------- 

 

 What an arrogant condecending statement.  For 120 years we have been the largest % of the worlds source of corn, and one of the primary sources of wheat to the world.  Beans are still sourced out of the US more reliably, economically, and competitively than anywhere in the world.

 

You have to wonder what his definition of "competitive" is.  Maybe he would like us to become one of the slave labor countries of the world.  Or Would he like to see the US grain supply in full governmental control so we can be competitive,  like Russia, China, or India?

 

Argentina comes to mind -------- who the xxx are we not competing well with?

 

Another quote from the guy on the left holding the teater totter steady ---------- "It will take two years for there to be any segnificant reduction in corn acres"  Really ...................  Are we as mentally slow as he thinks we are?  Or are we all hedged out for two years to max production?  That might be true for his customer, on the big side, but that is not the historic reaction of production.  That is not a hedge position, that is a speculation position and a dangerous one.  

 

Production has not driven the market down, Speculation of producion has.  Are there enough producer hedge positions in the market to hold acres up for 2015,  or even 2014 ------- Silo's should get restored this fall and feeder cattle should work quite well. ----- Will those type of market reactions be two years in the development??

 

How many bushels of what do those two produce?  They will be slow to be competitive but US production agriculture will not.

 

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Word of warning on USFR Utterback Hunt

BA,

 

Check out Luril's comment, just in on Marketing.  It is quite contrary to comments on the broadcast. 

The discussion on the teater totter was assuming a normal Ukraine harvest is going to get dumped on the market fast.

 

I would thinks Uril's version is more plausable.  And the harvest and transport of grains could and will become caught up in the fight.

 

Mining of wheat fields ----------- that is a new level of risk.  Smiley Sad

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Word of warning on USFR Utterback Hunt

Are the Hedge advisers trying to use the market to gain back customers they lost in the drought?????

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Word of warning on USFR Utterback Hunt

sw - that was a very good read from lurii - I about crapped the big one when I read they were mining the fields . and they said they would shot at or kill the operators - just shaken my head here .

 

Sorry I got off subject here - But I don't waste to much time reading the " What the Pros' Think - ( Bob and the others )  unless I really need a laugh .

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Word of warning on USFR Utterback Hunt

I just viewed the M to M segment and Sue basically (IMO) was saying the same thing as the other two.  Mum is the word, seems to me like they are scared to make any reccomendations but want you to have option protection in place.

 

These commodities are only one story away to start a large movement one way or another, let me know when the markets aren't just a story away?  Seems like they're almost in shock.

 

I've nearly always got enough cash stowed away for next years inputs and in most cases for the next two years.  I don't have significant on farm storage, or I should say I no longer have the people in place to utilize it the way I should.  I've only got about enough storage for one crop a year but lack the manpower to use it when it is harvest time.  I will not have my kids running a PTO powered auger.  Saving a few dollars on storage isn't a substitute for safety.

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capinegro3901115
Veteran Contributor

Re: Word of warning on USFR Utterback Hunt

Sue Martin and her $6 corn. "Corn needs a story" wow ty for that info. All bulls left standing can only HOPE for weather "El Nino" and wet harvest and world weather problems. IMHO Aug USDA report will cut back harvested acres but we know they will add yields...169 170 171??????

 

Markets know more than us and maybe she hit the red button when she mentioned ethanol plant in NB. and possible one other starting to use sugar beet instead of corn. usage???

 

Trading 170 yield yes I would agree. There must be a game changer. Dec targets I posted here at 353 and 331.75 IF the 414.50 gap stays open. 

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Word of warning on USFR Utterback Hunt

One has to wonder what the profit margin difference is between using subsidized suger beets and $3.xx corn amungest these e-plants.

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