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Honored Advisor

Worse than the Depression.

I`m posting a link to historic corn and bean prices going back to 1913 and a link to an inflation calculator.  About the lowest corn price for the year was in 1931 at 28 cents.  In 2019 dollars that would be $4.73 per bushel.  

Now you can say "we get 4 times the productivity that they did back then" and yes that`s true.  But if a farm was 160 acres back then and today it`s 1600 acres and you get 4 times the yield, why does your old lady have to work off the farm and why do you need a job off the farm and you still can`t send 3 kids to college when the 160 acre farmer sent his 5 kids to college?

Yes we have air conditioning in tractors where the A John Deere didn`t.   But the farmer back then could buy a brand new tractor, where today brand new is a pipe dream.   And that`s comparing to the Great Depression. 

The funny thing is if cash corn got to $4.73, farmers would think they died and went to Heaven and go on a buying spree not seen in quite some time...and that would be depression prices mind you.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/   

 

https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/pdf/a2-11.pdf   

 

Notice how corn jumped to $1.07/bushel in 1936  and then pretty much dropped in half to about 50 cents until World War II?  `36 was the big drought year, for you youngsters out there   Smiley Happy

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8 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Worse than the Depression.

Nothing more depressing than the last USDA predictions.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Worse than the Depression.

On  a  quick  note,  the  tariff  on  Christmas  Trees  will  go  into  effect  1  - 1  -  2020  - - -  

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Worse than the Depression.

1939 the year M Farmals and styled A John Dears came out corn averaged 39 cents. there were a lot of new A's and M's bought that year. If corn had kept up to inflation. The 2019 average corn price would be $7.20 and a lot of new tractors would be purchased.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Worse than the Depression.

Dear John's not the same as John Deere

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Advisor

Re: Oh, it's worse than that.

Late last winter, I was by the FSA office on some business and while I waited the loan officer walked by the counter and another fellow whom I vaguely recognized started a conversation with her.  It may have been impolite for me to listen but they were standing right next to me, speaking in normal conversational voice and it would have been inconvenient to not overhear.

   In response to some comment, the loan officer indicated that they were going to review all their dairy farm clients and decide who was going to go out and who would stay.

   Not many days later, the rumor went around that one of my not-so-near neighbors ( who had just completed a new barn and milked about a 1000 head) had been told, "either get bigger or go out" so I guessed there was something to that rumor.

  More recently, I heard that he planned to build another barn and hire some more Guatemalans so I guess he made his decision.

   Well, I may not be as big a show as he is but if I go broke, it'll be on my own terms. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Oh, it's worse than that.

That FHA has a long history of micro managing and keeping their borrowers in debt.  I`d quit if my local banker no longer wanted to work with me.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Worse than the Depression.

Totally right ba.  

Dont get lost in the hopeful trump haters.  Making the same mistakes and not finding a candidate that can unite.

——————-

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Honored Advisor

Re: Worse than the Depression.

And roarintiger,

i still don’t see how we can expect this government agency to be any less “in the tank” politically than any other.  The tight affiliation with one party of employees has been vocal for decades.

with trade being made so twitter public, not saying reports are biased, whether it is the amount of$$$ being dumped into markets with political purpose or the lack of oversite, or foot dragging in usda (as we’re seeing in payment issues) , the public servants are involved politically. 

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