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Veteran Advisor

Would you short Corn and Soybeans at these levels?

I have been trading both ways lately and we have a long season ahead of us.  I am leaning on the idea that we will have record planting and the inevitable will come and that is prices dropping like a hot potatoe.   What do you see in the next couple of weeks?

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22 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Would you short Corn and Soybeans at these levels?

I'd have a difficult time shorting both corn and soybeans when the stocks/use ratios are at such low levels for both crops.  The market will be nervous until they have an idea of how many acres of each crop are planted.  good luck

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Honored Advisor

Re: Would you short Corn and Soybeans at these levels?

Kind of like asking which slot machine to play at the Casino. If you have to ask don't do it ( if you had shorted it on yesterday;s close how would that look now in the overnight's?)

 

The fundamentals of a short crop in storage and the main areas not planted yet have not changed we are still 120ish days away from the main harvest...what ever it turns out to be...Major production areas were hit with heat and drought in the last production cycle...what makes anyone think we will be imune?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Would you short Corn and Soybeans at these levels?

Hobby,

 

I ask to get others perspective whether good or bad.  I can't ask a question these days or do I  not have that freedom?  I ask, so I do not feel like I am at the casino. The market does what it likes whether there are fundamentals or not.  We all just want to be on the right side when trading....at least for  a couple of minutes or an hour.

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Would you short Corn and Soybeans at these levels?

I have to believe if the corn acres intended to be planted number comes in as strong as some on the i-net think, then the intended soybean acres  to be planted must come in as much lower, resulting in a good bounce up in the soys. Unless somehow this country can come up with millions of more acres that no one has yet discovered.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Would you short Corn and Soybeans at these levels?

Short answer : I don't know

 

Long answer.  Give me $1000 to invest in the market as I see fit.  Invest $10,000 the opposite way.  I'd say doing that would give you about a 99.75% chance of turning a nice profit.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Would you short Corn and Soybeans at these levels?

gio: I reread my post and it does give a bad impression. Sorry it came off as rude...

 

I do think shorting the nearby months would be swimming against the current. The new crop is highly discounted to cash already so there is where the greatest opportunity exists if there is a weather problem this growing year. $4.50 to $5.50 corn is under priced in today's economic picture.

 

The wheat is at great risk of a freeze damage reduced crop due to it's early development for this time of year.  

 

If the weather does not have freeze at a later date the wheat looks to have tremendious potential to be the best ever bu/acre average

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Would you short Corn and Soybeans at these levels?

The grain markets seem poised to move up to a higher seasonal trading range for the next couple of months while acres are being planted and a better feel develops for how much old crop grain actually exists and how much is getting used or shipped out. It is possible that the trading range is already evident, from last Friday's highs and this weeks lows before the rebounds, but I doubt it.

 

I would not, and am not, shorting the market at the current values. My two cents.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Would you short Corn and Soybeans at these levels?

Hobbyfarmer.

 

No sweat.  Lets keep working, maybe we make a buck today. Smiley Happy

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Would you short Corn and Soybeans at these levels?

didnt you go short beans 2 bucks ago.........................

 

http://community.agriculture.com/t5/Marketing/Are-traders-holding-their-long-positions-over-the-week...

 

EDIT:  I love it how bears are always right even when they are wrong..............you dont happen to post on another site by the name of Agtrader????

 

 

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