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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Would you

If you could get $4.50 for corn delivered May-July 2016 would you price some?
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8 Replies
rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Would you

Yep......and then if we get a weather play, you can come back in and own the July 2015 and watch it gain rapidly on the deferred futures value.....

 

35 cent N/N spread tonight??

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Would you

No. Not at least until the spring of 2016 will I worry about 2016 corn.

SX15 and sn16 beans are another story. They very likely have another $1.80 or more to the downside.

Definately long wheat to complete the package. Not that you asked but fodder for the site.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Would you

I wouldn`t but I don`t buy green bananas either  🙂  I have a running $1/2 million bet with the insurance company that I won`t last though out the year either  🙂 So, I`m not going to sell corn a year out.

 

But I will say this, $4.50 corn will probably make you good money in 2016 given that inputs will be down.  And I think $4.50 will be obtainable, the E-plant is offering $4.03 for next spring

 

http://poetbiorefining-hanlontown.aghost.net/index.cfm?show=11&mid=3 

 

 

This might me how we have to market is sell a year or more out, a relative sold new crop `15 beans for $11.50 last may and made clean up sales last Dec for $9.50, so his 2015 beans sales look to be in the top 5%...but no guts, no glory.   Guess that`s why I`m poor.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Would you

BA,  What make you think that inputs will be down in 2016?

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Would you

Hey Roarin`, rents are coming down....well let me put it this way, a young friend of mine that couldn`t rent land to sell his soul last year, has picked up 450 acres this year.  Fertilizer guys all say prices will be down this fall.  Seed will have to come down or i`ll be buying this $130 Fleet Farm seed in 2016  🙂

 

http://mff-www-uat01.speedfc.com/detail/mills-fleet-farm-50-lbs-mff-brand-seed-corn/0000000076407?ca...

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Would you

You can already buy the best Dow has to offer for less than that in conventional. RR can be bought for $160 for sure But I would get real foot draggy about paying over $150 on that.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Would you

I think it's a tall order to expect fertilizer and seed to be lower in cost next year.  The rents lower?  I would agree there.

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Red Steele
Veteran Advisor

Genetics?

I wonder if that is the Syngenta/Pioneer cross that has won so many plots conventional and high tech or another performer. I am going to do a field of low tech corn this year to get ready for 2016 and gearing up to make money on being a low cost producer once again, just like in the 1980's. Conventional corn. banding and sidedressing fertilizer, cultivating weeds out.  

 

$4.50 corn looks like a great bid.

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