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Senior Contributor

Wow!

All I can say is wow. This permabear is fully in the bullish camp. Our crop "round here" looks respectable, but some of the corn was rolling today. Normally I don't get too concerned with corn rolling in July, but the tile lines are still running and corn planted over those tile lines means no root system. Our rain forecast just keeps getting slimmer. Turn the water off and it could be worse than last year. On top of that I took a trip to northern Iowa/Southern Mn for the 4th. Thousands of acres of black dirt or planters in the field on July 4. One thing about the American farmer is he will keep trying.

 

The trade is wrong. I can admit when I am wrong. Apologies to the bulls.

4 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: Wow!

I appreciate that, we are all wrong at some point. I am worried the dollar value is going to trump all. .85 after .72. That is a chunk of the move. It is the only reason I hedged this yet. Good luck on your crops.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Wow!

We have so much of the summer to go - so many things that can go wrong with this crop. That is why I've been saying that the market is wrong on this one. I'm not sure why. For some reason the market has believed the USDA reports lately, like they're gospel. I remember the trade some years ago the USDA would come out with a bearish report, the market would start lower and be limit up by the end of the day because of a bs report. It's strange how this time it's "Oh yeah, we have the crop - it's made and in the bin".

Right. I still say less than 12bbl WITHOUT problems. Guess what - the problems are already here.

Jen
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Wow!

......completely speechless.........except I'll say it again backwards -- !woW

 

i'm trying to be funny here--you mean when it's cool and wet the corn roots don't grow down 8-12 ft??

 

learn something new everydaySmiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Wow!

wrestler, I don't think you are wrong. But the weather is just not going to let you be right------- this year. 

 

Good general rains did not materialize this year.  Instead we got dry weather patterns ---------  dumping a lot in localized areas and patterns where the same area gets it over and over in the same pattern while other areas get missed continually.

But the big issue is still the late, super cold, freezes that took 5 weeks of growing season from us.

 

2012 was a great marketing year.  2013 is setting up to be a great trading year.  We could see some big swing opportunities.  

 

 

 

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