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Honored Advisor

X-Files Marketing

Caught a little of the Noory show this morning and the guest was talking about a extra-terrestrial base on Antarctica that has spacecrafts and the bodies of giant beings that are thankfully dead.   But in this unprecedented time in every other way that we`re living in, what if the government finally comes clean about ET, what would that do to our markets?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: X-Files Marketing

It depends on the freight rate from Pluto to the PNW

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Advisor

Re: X-Files Marketing

I don't think that highly evolved extra terrestials would be giants. Here on

earth, Anthropologists that study human evolution usually concurr that the

most highly evolved subsets of humans are found in Asia, and have more

fragile skulls and smaller bodies.

 

I say that as a 6-4, 215 lb American from mainly northern European roots.

The large frame Vikings, the thick skulls found in other racial subsets, etc

are usually attributed to more war like, and less civilized, cultures where

physical strength trumps intelligence.

 

But, whatever it takes to get beans solidly over the $10 mark (Mankato and

Fairmont markets went over $10 for summer deferred markets this week)

and corn over or near the $4 mark.

 

Lets make farming fun again.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: X-Files Marketing

Ray, the basis on Pluto couldn`t be any worse than North Dakota, could it?  Smiley Happy   But seriously, if there was a "star gate " in the PNW....while we`re at it, just have a star gate in China to take full advantage of the zero point energy transporation.

 

Red, I think everyone will be watching the SA forescast and if 7X beans make a pop, everyone and their brother will be selling.  If it`s raining they`ll all be kicking themselves they didn`t sell more at the end of last year.   But, it`s a long way to go yet, but then we`re at the mercy of a domestic drought to bail us out.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: X-Files Marketing

bean basis at adm/des moines went to -58H on Friday afternoon

 

I think hedging old crop beans against July futures and waiting out the next 2-3 months would be warranted

 

that would be eqv of -71 under July

 

pick up 7-10 cents per month for the next four months??

 

all of this is telling me that farmers are selling beans to generate cash flow and taking it slow on selling corn for the time being

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Honored Advisor

Re: X-Files Marketing

Your right Ray ........ been true since harvest....beans went first.....

 

 

Opening jokes on the BA & Ray thread were priceless.......... Ray delivered the punch line with a wonderful straight face and dry witt.

 

Very Gracy Allen like //////////  in my mind anyway.

 

 

Made my day ...........   Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: X-Files Marketing

Ray,

 

Do I understand you're talking about hedging beans in the bin in selling the July futures?  I am not  very experienced in this kind of hedge.  My question is do you expect the July futures to come down to the nearby futures as opposed to assuming the cash will go up to the July?  I guess you must or one would just hold the beans in the bin on speculation.

 

Soybeans bother me.  I can't figure out what keeps them so high.  I want to short them but have the feelling it's a matter of timing.  Besides, bean futures should rise in the spring.  I feel like I'm pulled in two directions.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: X-Files Marketing

Jim......I look at and say "what is the lowest risk way to get the next 40-50 cents out of the bean market"??

 

and my answer is the storage hedge against July futures (10.61)

 

if there is a weather issue in SA, we can certainly melt up to $11, but basis will likely widen if it happens in next 5-35 days which means you will still want to hedge and wait on some basis appreciation

 

some guys in Chicago I follow believe the farmer has turned over quite a bit of cash bean ownership and that is helping the funds play the long side of beans for now.....

 

if that is true, then it likely means the basis appreciation theory may be correct in the May/June time period....

 

another strategy would be to stay long the beans in the bin, and sell an 11.40 July call for 26.5 cents......that gives you over a dollar of "wiggle room" before you start trading gains penny for penny against the short call

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: X-Files Marketing

Thanks for your thoughts.

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