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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Yield Plateau in corn?

Two things currently guaranteeing the yield party is over....... at least in overall total production.....  (We saw the last of the 15 billion bushel party over two years ago.  No evidence of that in real terms the last two years and this one may be around 11 billion if the corn belt can make up for the rest of the country.)

1.  Natural gas.......... which supplies (fuels) most of our irrigation, electricity, and fertilizer, is unafordable for all three.

There will be a drastic reduction in acres planted and bushels raised if we retain the present pricing patterns.  Arlan keeps hanging on a 171 bu number--- at least 16 bushel too high for an overall average........ get a grip on the number of irrigated acres being chopped for silage and insurance claims in spite of the basis being higher than imagined

2. Weather pattern........... no change so far...... July 21 to July 22 is in fact the driest year on record..... nothing has happened to give a glimmer of hope for better in 2023.......   Fact is it moves east in 2023 just like it did in 2012.  This time it is far more severe.  Check temps on the west coast the last few days.... and nothing happening in the gulf of Mexico to plant a wheat crop on.

The only asset we have that can fuel green energy is coal and natural gas............Been true all along.

The fall from here will be painful.

 

 

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