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Nebraska Sandhiller
Frequent Contributor

Yields, worse than expected

4Here in NW Nebraska, the corn yields are worse than expected.  Nearly all Irrigated corn in this area.  My corn yield was just over 100 bu / acre.  Excellent yield would be 200, and thought I could count on 165.  One of the BTO's in the area is rumored to be getting almost 120.  This evening, I heard of some pivots 10 miles from me that did 75. 

 

Most of the corn from this area goes to the Nebraska Panhandle. 

Even though I hear some of the lucky fellers south of Haysprings are getting exceptional yields, I bet that the unit trains will be loading up mid summer to get  the panhandle to another harvest.  Seemed that the bin sweepings were nearly all cleaned up this year before harvest.

 

The $5.00 corn I sold early in the summer sure isn't gona pay the bills this year with only 100 bu yield.  Sure hope my insurance works out ok for once.  If I had got normal yields, that price would have been ok.  I was thinking that would be profitable and I didn't have bin storage to hold it.  Now I got lots of bin room.

 

Not going to be any income tax problems in this area this year.  Hope there are not to many farm sales! 

 

From the people I have talked to, I got the impression that the pipeline of corn  was way shorter of being full this year, than in the past.  I wonder how people are feeling about that in other areas.

 

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9 Replies
Red Steele
Veteran Advisor

Re: Yields, worse than expected

I am in an area of southern MN that historically gets bin buster yields, and ours are way down, too. Not a diaster by any means, but the 200-225 bushel land might have done 165 to 180, and the 60 bushel soybean ground never made it out of the 40's. These yields are showing up on seed corn plots, not just heresay. No rain in august or september, early frost, and wet start to the year...reminded of that while combining and seeing the ruts still there.

 

My averages were right at what the crop forcasters say is the national average, and I have a hard time believing they are right. Usually I am way over the national average, but I don't want to be guilty of "backyard-itis" and think my little slice of eden is the pivot of the universe.

 

Maybe there still is the shock and run up to come in the corn and soybean markets. My bins were completely empty to start the fall, and I am glad I filled any contracts I had.

 

My heart goes out to those that cannot fill their obligations.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Yields, worse than expected

Thanks,

We were under the impression that everything was rosey north of I-70.  Here(250m south) it was heat.  Did you know it was coming or just a sudden suprise?

Ours was heat and we knew we were in trouble....just not how much....  Our later stuff & replant did better 150--160, but first half of planting was 40-80 bu irrigated------normal 200+ averages.  Spent lots of $$& water getting it too.

 

Our sandy ground did not handle the stress.  Worst year in my life.  No dryland crops to speak of since 2010 spring.

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Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: Yields, worse than expected

Nebraska Sandhiller sounds like we had something in common this year. My corn yield this year was my worst since I started farming a few years ago. We didn't have a disaster and it could have been worse so I am thankful, but I can honestly say I didn't make a dime off my corn this year. My corn averaged 106 bu on ground that should yield 140-150 in a decent year. The later planted corn in my area although wet is doing much better. I know of a farmer to my south in Indiana who farms some good ground that would average 150+ bu normally that harvested a field that was planted "on time" averaged 70 bu corn recently. Hopefully that guys later planted stuff does better.... Oh well theirs always next year!

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Mike central IA
Veteran Contributor

Re: Yields, worse than expected

I think if the truth were known, most areas came up short. Here in central Iowa I know of a few bins that are sitting empty, and that is very unusual. Many years there is a scramble to rent extra storage. Considering the number of bins and grain storage structures damaged/destroyed  during summer windstorms, there didn't seem to be a shortage of storage. I do know my corn yields were under the average by a ways, certainly not trendline (oh, how I hate that term) and the beans were fair to average. Yes, better than I expected for these growing conditions, but not what we need to keep up with rising input costs. And not what we were told we HAD to have to keep up with demand. Sure, demand has changed, but in my opinion, it hasn't dropped off by the same percentage that we are missing "trendline" yields.

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Yields, worse than expected

My bins are empty because I chose to forward contract a bunch at attractive prices, We hauled it all to town because i plan on liquidating the balance while the prices are still good

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Nebrfarmr
Veteran Advisor

Re: Yields, worse than expected

I am in central NE, and I probalby am in one of the few spots where the irrigated corn is fully average, or slightly better than average, if you were able to miss the hail, and greensnap.  The dryland was anywhere from OK to disappointing, depending on planting time, length of season of corn (shorter the better on dryland, the longer the better on irrigated) and susbmoisture available.

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Yields, better than expected

Not to say you do not have poor yields OR that total supplies will not be down but just to point out some do have better than average yields I thought I should post too.

I have been in the worse than expected group before but am sitting in a preferred place this year and have better than average yields and better than expected.

Do not have hard numbers yet but combine monitor was showing almost unprecedented yields for us. In excess of 12 tonne/ha which would be over 200 56 lb units/ac on some fields.

 

BIG problem was getting trucks empty quick enough and buggy never stopped hauling or unloading. Any slowdown to top off a truck left combine waiting. As I said unprecedented for us.

Even late planted in June corn came through with great yields although wetter.

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sonoma72
Veteran Contributor

Re: Yields, worse than expected

that is exactly what i saw nebrfarmr.  the july 11 green snap event is what knocked the top off my white corn, think it did 185, it had massive potential.   The yellow ended up at 207, the greensnap was a lot less on it.  Save that one day this would have been my best corn and beans ever.  Although I would note, i have heard of guys with very poor yields that tried to skimp on fertilizer.  On the whole though, I would guess yields are down, if for no other reason it seems everyone had hail or green snap.  

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Yields, better than expected

good report canuk,

That is such a nice area but always looks like it is risky to the weather like we are. even though for opposite reasons many times.  We lean dry when u fight too much water occasionally.

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