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05-01-2017 08:06 AM
I'm pulling your leg a little as we see grains up a dime or so. The question is, if we get a price bump, when do I sell?
Analysts and market gurus tell us to sell when we make a profit.
They tell us to sell above breakeven.
Then they tell us to sell at breakeven.
Some say sell on the way up.
We'd all like to sell at the top.
Of course, it's better than nothing to sell on the way down.
I'm always afraid I'll sell at the bottom.
I have some sell orders in that I can live with. It's more or less the sell on the way up idea. It's predicated on the idea that grains will be lower this fall. If I'm wrong on that, I'd better do something about it as events turn up. I'm not an advocate of waiting till it's in the bin to sell but that means it's possible to get behind the power curve in a year that doesn't follow seasonal price trends.
Speaking of which, as we get more and more grain out of the rest of the world, the seasonal charts need to be watched pretty closely and not just assumed to be right. I'd like to see some trends that focus more on the last 5-10 years and not so much on the last 30 - too much has changed in the last 30.
05-01-2017 09:41 AM
No, I seldom use options. I did some last year and made some money on them, but I usually just work the futures directly.
If it blows through my sell orders, catching them as prices go up, I think I have 3 levels, then my bet is that prices will drop back through them by expiration or I'll roll them. If that is wrong, I'm losing money and hunting for an exit.
I'm sure options will work but I honestly don't think I'm smart enough to use them right.