You don't need to persuade the USDA on crop production

[kraft-t]

Or me or your fellow forum members. Or reassure each others like a bunch of dittoheads. The Usda numbers are their numbers and they are not gospel or written in stone.

However, the trade must somewhat agree with them when they drive beans 40 cents higher and corn 12 cents lower. Those are the fellers you need to convince.

We have harvest upon us and we the immediate supply is somewhat larger. Old crop is the same as new crop at this moment in time. They don't keep old beans and new beans separate in the elevator nor do they keep old corn and new corn separate.

The immediacy of demand has vanished. They have new crop is coming on and lots of grain on forward contract.  There is little urgency to make purchases now and we have not yet heard of those bin buster yields elsewhere. All that is on our minds are those crops that look like crap. We are focused on them and there are probably alot of 170 bushel corn or more that we haven't heard about as yet. Those fellows can harvest a thousand dollars per acre and they are hardly joining the chorus of the woe is me crowd.

[cyclonegrain]

Great post Kraft-t.  Lots of good yields in SW Mn and NW Ia.  In several cases, better than last year.  I have also found it to be interesting how many yield reports are below last year, BUT better than expected throughout the corn belt.  Anybody thought about the possibilities of a final trend line yield on corn in the 128-134 range? 

[jec22]

I think we will get to test that carry in theory in a week to ten days when the combines are all on beans.  If we are depending on 2012 corn to supply demand, there will be a jump in basis.  If not, then we can assume these figures are correct and there is old crop inventory to fill the supply needs.

As for final yields boys, IA is still at 140, that is NOT chump change.  It takes 200 bushel corn in several places to make that happen.  What was the record for IA?   180?  140 is still 78% of that.  That is only a 22% hit from the all time record.  I think for what we know now, the USDA is not that far off on yields, carry in could be right.  The the BIG issue is did the demand go away.  Should not have in the case of ethanol, 4 dollar gas should make ethanol more attractive.  Not corn sugar, since I see it is used in the White House beer recipe.  So, that leaves livestock and exports and weather around the world.  We have had corn prices in this range several times in the last four years, and the demand is still there.  Corn is already off a buck from it's highs in the cash market.   Thank goodness for ethanol, or we would be looking at two dollar corn every year we had normal yields.

[Nebrfarmr]

Around here, there have been many, many bushels contracted at harvest (we were supposed to have a record harvest this spring, and people were worried that they might not be able to be rid of it all in a timely manner, if they didn't have at least some contracted) and the guys who didn't need the money, to be forced to contract in the spring, contracted a bunch more, right at the first of the year.  I think the end users are OK for now, with harvest starting.  The question will be, will it be enough to last through the end of the year, when the next rush of crops get hauled in, and if so, will they be needing more, come next August?

[Hobbyfarmer]

I took a load of old ('11) corn in day before yesterday and had to wait while they empted the pit and switched the spout at the top of the leg to add it to their small pile of "old crop" corn. It is being kept back for the sows with pigs and a few of the chicken guys.

[sw363535]

I get your point Kraft,

But in the bins I watch over they are never mixed----------------leads to sweat layer that rots and screws up the whole bin.

[kraft-t]

Well that is a first Hobby!  You are the first one ever to tell me i am wrong. Lol. Watch your corn bids and see if the there is a premium bid for old corn. If it is not gone yet it soon will be.

[DW11]

Mr. Kraft,

There better be some 170 bushel corn out there because 170 averaged with a lot of 100 bushel corn makes a 135 total average.  Iowa is projected by USDA at 140.

And if you believe the harvested acres number that USDA has floated at over 90% of planted acres in a historic drought, I've got some other stuff to sell you.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

you are correct.........for reporting purposes most elevators could care less old from new.........they have a total number.........

that said............2011 crop is commanding a premium in several areas.............and is being binned separately..........first time in a long time...........sounds like Hobby is hearing and seeing the same thing in his area...........and I heard a similar comment come from east of Hobby yesterday.............guys are hauling the junk to town and keeping the good stuff, and most end users have been running hand to mouth are outta good stuff to blend it with.........after this harvest push ends, we will likely see just how much corn is out there............could get interesting............

also grain buyers are calling during harvest, and actually the tail end of corn harvest looking for 2012 and 2011 corn............

I understand that in parts of IA and other areas that might not be the case, because the crop coming out is in decent shape and there are many more acres and better corn............but the fact is..........96M acres in a year when IL and IA corn acres were basically flat means there is a pile of corn outside those states...........and to get to 14.8B, my bad........10.7B crop size, its going to take a lot of fringe bushels............I know were Wright County is, some really nice ground, some really nice 2012 crops, be thankful..........you can go 50-100 miles and find some really junk stuff in IA........come south 100 to 300 miles and I can show you ZERO BU/A.........

Fact is, the USDA is taking their sweet time lower things.........and 90% harvested acres, when the number 1 statement I have heard all fall is.................."I have never seen this much silage chopped in our area".....................what about all the corn that was mowed down..........and then the 0-10 bu/a ground...........

This happened in 2010, 2011 and while 2012 has been a quicker reduction, it was a worse year............I can believe their nat avg number on 84M harvested acres.........not 87M..........