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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

You wouldn't think........

this...........

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzBoiA68Q9k&feature=youtu.be

 

and marketing would have much in common.........but then again...........

 

anyway.......

 

next phase coming up in this drought market mess..........report showed us that yield is not there, but as always they fluffed the books to keep things in line...........honestly until this corn crop goes sub 10B I am not sure we push much higher..........there is some rationing going on and some excess wheat and world corn filling some gaps..........as long as the domestic pipeline is full with something and the world pipeline is moving along things will be stable..........

 

so the question is, are we sub 10B...........its going to be tight..........

 

soya are an unknown.........yield is hurt, how bad no one knows..........my guess is we have to be sub 2.5B for things to really take off and that likely still a month away before we know that............you know SA is going to pump some soya out.........and IMO soya acres will be huge in NA next year IF they keep the price up thru planting............BUT China is still buying and as of NOW SA is out and NA will be short............SO cash might be the crazy market..........and BOT could be getting tired or at least stable...........

 

seems like the weather pattern is trying to shift.........picking up a touch of rain here and there now and its cooler..........doesn't help the corn much except for maybe far northern reaches, BUT its been pushed so fast too and stressed this won't do near what it could...........soya likely getting some help too, BUT there again things were so early and pushed so hard, they only have a few more weeks to get r done..........

 

few pics below..........after a small shower, first one in awhile, not sure how the soya are still alive with less than 2 inches since emergence..........unfortunately not even a double rainbow can fix this year............

 

little bit of dirt track racing, farming, and the stars and stripes in one

IMG-20120808-00328.jpgIMG-20120811-00006.jpgIMG-20120811-00012.jpg

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5 Replies
rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: You wouldn't think........

Now, you really disappoint me.......only live 15 minutes outside of Kville....was in town twice on Saturday...tsk, tsk

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: You wouldn't think........

i know i know...........we didnt roll in till about 5...........

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DW11
Veteran Contributor

Re: You wouldn't think........

I think we are at 9.8 on 118 bpa and 83.2 million harvested.  USDA got closer on yield per acre than I expected, but they are farther away on harvested acres than I expected. 

 

With all the acres going for silage and huge abandonment in drought years, how does USDA only take 1 million off of harvested acres going from the July to the August report?  That number is going down.  It's not hard to determine that it will take 3 times as many acres for 8 ton silage compared to 24 ton silage.  I also think the potential scarcity of DDG's will make people put up more corn for silage.

 

I think USDA is 4 million harvested acres (472 million bushels) and 5 bpa (416 million bushels) too high.

Farmerjoe79
Senior Contributor

Re: You wouldn't think........

I think your real close on them harvested acres dw11 but I think the yield will come in around 110. Time will tell.
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idalivered
Advisor

Re: You wouldn't think........

I think the usda may be really close on yield and total bushels and they will adjust carry out from these no.'s. The problem will be that so much of the '12 crop will be harvested and into the pipeline early. this blending of old vs. new will really complicate the projections for next year. We are grinding thru new crop already at a good pace. Even this small amount of new corn and willing sellers has moderated the need for corn to go even higher. For now.  It will be fascinating to see how this all plays out, next year. Let us hope we don't have a 2009 type late wet harvest next year.

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