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Esteemed Advisor

a better case scenario

looks like the first wave of the virus peaks sometime in early May, plateaus for a month or so and then tails off. Total cases are held below several million and deaths below 150K.

Life halfway goes back to normal by the middle of July until Fall. Hopefully there will be therapies to reduce mortality by the end of the first wave and definitely in the second. There will be millions of people with acquired immunity and they will be identified. A vaccine arrives very early in 2021.

Unemployment hits 20% by the end of April or early May* but begins to fall slowly thereafter. CBO's projection has unemployment finally falling below 10% by the end of '21.

Federal budget deficit grows by $5T by the end of '21. Fed balance sheet another $5T.

*I do think this will all happen a lot faster than many predict. The trick is not to let it feed on itself.


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4 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: It might be a good idea to plant some potatoes this year .....

It might be a good idea to plant some potatoes this year so as to have something to eat.

If we're still alive.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: a better case scenario

It sure is a rosy picture your painting. But you might want to take a look at the raw numbers. Not some pie in the sky projections. They are trying to claim 1-3% death rate. But if you look at the  number that died compared to the number that have recovered. We have the worst ratio in the world. Right now 90 days into this we are at 40% death loss. (total recovered plus number dead divided into total dead)

Then on unemployment an increase of 750,000 in early March moved the US unemployment percent up 1%. In the last two weeks of March we added 10,000,000 to unemployment. Is there any fool that thinks people are going back to work in the next 2 weeks? We are well above 10% unemployment now and the worst is yet to come. 

We are going to get through this but it's going to be ugly. So far we have done everything wrong that could be done wrong. 

Find me a farmer that raises livestock that does not know that when faced with a viral out break you don't wait till you have sick ones before you do anything.  

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: a better case scenario

Poppy,  you can`t compare US citizens to "livestock", if we have sick livestock we can go off label treating (we shouldn`t) we  can euthanize.  But, free people have the right to leave the barn, there`s gates in the lot. 

Spring break and Mardi Gras went on ...well at that time either no deaths or a few deaths. In that lat January early February period at POTUS or governor would`ve popular as a skunk at a nudist colony for canceling people`s fun.  The President did everything the experts said and governors wanted. 

Experts said "2 million will die!!"  then "100,000 to 240,000 will die!!!!" so Trump says "be careful, 200,000 of you could die" then the experts say"where did he get that information????"  from you, you damned fool experts! 

The experts don`t even know anything  either.   But we must be close to things getting better, cause Libs say "oh he`s ballooning the numbers so it looks good if it`s just a few thousand deaths"    Damned if he does damned if he doesn`t.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: a better case scenario

Like Tucker Carlson was shrieking about the other day-

“ the experts will use this crisis to seize power.”

Couldnt be anything more on brand.

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