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a chart to keep you awake

over the weekend , anyway.  Or sleep well, I guess, depending on how you're positioned.

 

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CI/W?anticache=1365784997

 

With the energies maybe giving it up, metals puking, it might be a nice setup for the CRB index to gap down and go.

 

Doesn't have to gap down to be bearish either, and could be bottoming. But I don't like the looks of it.

 

I don't know why the commodity sector is acting so punky and first order of business is to observe that it is and change straegies as you think it may be called for. Explaining why can wait until the post mortem.

 

 

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24 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: a chart to keep you awake

Nox, you seem to have an almost perpetual bearish fever and no doubt this has limited your success in recent years. After getting burned on $3 corn contracts a few years ago now, I found out that it makes me a lot happier and wealthier to not bet against the price of grain going down....to produce it, store it , and sell it. I sleep soundly at night, and enjoy selling the grain when it gets to a good price ( like now , as our southern Mn bid nears $7 again, despite the bearish govt fantasy report.)

 

Instead of thinking about buying gold or some other exotic metal, maybe you should get a grain bin and hang on to those golden kernals instead.

 

We just had the biggest snow event of the winter, in spring, and this will translate into higher fall prices as production prospects will slip for each day it stays unseasonably cold. Embrace the chance to particpate in a grain rally.

 

Betting against your own financial success seems like a terrible recipe to use in life. Set yourself up to win rather than lose.

 

Just some friendly advice.

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Advisor

Re: a chart to keep you awake

Looks like a head and shoulders bottom to me Nox

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Senior Advisor

Re: a chart to keep you awake

Kinda what i was thinking.........pull that right shoulder up and its an inverted H/S..........bullish
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Honored Advisor

Re: a chart to keep you awake

Knox:

   Your fears are well founded, but a far better chart that makes the point very strongly, is the monthly version of the one you linked too. Just click on the monthly button on the left side of the link.

   Inverted H&S? Seems like MT found some of that ditch weed and inhaled then passed it to Redy Still, and on over to kitty CAT.

I keep telling everyone that support on the gold chart is $850, BEST CASE.

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Honored Advisor

Re: a chart to keep you awake

Redeye...your plan will bring you amazingly poor returns over the next 4 years. It is your farm, and I think you have the freedom to do whatever you want with it, including take amazing amounts of price risk out of stubborness and ignorance of economic history. You are merely compounding the mistake of $3 corn, just in the opposite direction. Good Luck, you will need it.

 

Also, while attacking Knox is required to keep convincing yourself you are right, it is not a strategy, or a plan. I'd counsel you to get some help before it is too late.

 

Knox does not need my defense. You should however have a little more respect for someone with a balanced perspective, and someone with lots of dirt he paid for himself.

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Advisor

Re: a chart to keep you awake

Hey Time How did your tiiming stuff work thru the report?? wheres the big spring rally in March early April. Oops report messed it up. I know I know you were hedged.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: a chart to keep you awake

Mornin fellas!

 

Don't have a feel for the future at all. Fundamentals will lead the way one week and monetary policy (or the lack of it) the next.

 

We will all get a chance at being wrong. 

 

If Gold falls to 850 land will be about 2800. RSW will not ever stop complaining! LOL

 

The positive basis is still making it very difficult for the livestock producer. This cold weather that is holding back grass greening up is also hurting. 

 

BUt with Fluid sales of milk off huge in Jan. we still see that the consumer can't afford to eat. Really keeps a lid on my sectors profitability.

 

Most of the fat cattle guys I am talking to are hoping for breakeven. Hog guys are still getting slaughtered and poultry is slightly in the green.

 

The grow it bin it sell it crowd will have gtood days thier bankers will have many sleepless nights.

 

Peak stress isn't even close yet.

 

BTW past success isn't indicitive a future success now.

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Honored Advisor

Re: a chart to keep you awake

Just last week guys were posting grain charts and everything was bearish......for months to come.   Grain stocks are tight.....then somebody reports that they find some.....then somebody reports they didn't find as much......All within 10 days!  Somebody is lying, can't count.........or both.    My head is spinning.      Smiley Mad

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Honored Advisor

Re: a chart to keep you awake

No CAT....I had lifted all the new corn hedges at around 5.50 in early March. We kept all the new beans hedged. It looks like I will get a chance to get the corn hedges back on this week where they were exited. So no harm done. Unlike many, I openly admit mistakes and turning bullish new corn was one. Trying to capture a minor rally in a major downtrend is fraught with peril. To be fair, many of you are holding old corn that we delivered for well over $8 back in Dec/Jan.

 

I have come to depend on government incompetence...sometimes it just isn't obvious when they are being so. The Jan report was the one that was truly incompetent.

 

To your sarcasm, yes we have been 100% hedged 2013 beans since late August. We were 100% hedged 2013 corn until early March. While it is never popular on this site, not taking price risk (ie having the crop hedged)  is a valid business decision. A comprehensive plan with tactics and which tools to use is important. We discuss those things all the time.

 

Blindly taking price risk in a commodity business is ill advised. Redeye seems to be taking an emotion driven stand based upon past trauma with an extremely short-term focus. That is mentally unhealthy and will be financially ill-advised as well.

This is just my opinion, and as outlined above, I am wrong on occasion.

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