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Contributor

a while back

in 2012 on the other site several livestock producers at different times asked rather meekly and discouraged  with how much longer they could afford to pay these prices for corn over the last several years.  Many of them knew people that had been forced out and many were tired of mortgaging everything to stay in it.

Well several grain farmers responded basically to shut up and buy the corn you should have seen this coming and booked lower.!    Shoes on the other foot now it appears. I look for some of the large hog and grain endusers to enter into the land rental game here in the next few years as the proverbial "s" hits the fan.  Gonna be tough to compete when they are getting 3 to 5 dollars a bushel more for their corn by adding value FWIW. Lessons were learned the last few years  they wont be forgotten quickly.Times they are a changing.

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6 Replies
Advisor

Re: a while back

Spreading your knowledge here now after the "other site" gives you the boot?
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Contributor

Re: a while back

A little bit a case of shooting the messenger. I was dead on with this grain bear.  Cant stand to hear the truth but thats pretty typical when you look at history.  I was even heading on a fact finding mission for the group i will keep those secrets to myself for now.  While others swore , calling me a troll, etc they were allowed to stay. to bad really for new ag talk.  That site is gonna circle the bowl all they have left is a bunch of farmer cheerleaders who are in the hope stage and unwilling to entertain reality and its ramifications.

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Advisor

Re: a while back

Not really as farmpro is doing his best to carry the torch for the uberbears that used to continually post over there. I am not shooting the messenger as we all can see what the markets are doing. Some are positioned well and some are not. What works one year might not the next--tends to average out in the end. By the way you must be referring to the $50,000,000 deal you were working on with the Chinese. Have a feeling you might end up with no blanket at the end of the night on that one.
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Contributor

Re: a while back

not worried the chinese are sitting with it all out in the wind.

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Honored Advisor

Re: a while back

For many years "Big livestock Inc" got rich buying corn below the cost of production, if we are going back to that, I don`t know why they`d want to jump into grain farming.  General Patton once said `No poor bastxxd won a war dying for his country, he won it by making the other poor bastxxds die for their country`  Smiley Happy   

 

Oh those Dutch in NW Iowa will buy land to spread manure, but they were buying land for $20,000.  I wonder how good Big Livestock Inc will have it, because feeder cattle are high priced and rare, hogs have PEDV. 

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Contributor

Re: a while back

I agree BA although this last time many had their feet held to the fire and wont let it happen again IMO.   It will be different though i suspect many custom farming deals where they will buy everything for the group on large lots and have individual operators do the work.   Some of these outfits will have 50 or 100 million in profits and Lord only knows how much working capital if grain stays cheap. The cheaper rent goes .....well it just adds up to a bunch acres these kind of folks could be farming. When we left the loan rate structure in the rear view mirror. We IMO also opened ourselves up to the 90's hog cycle brutality where losses are large and easy to be .had.

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