cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Senior Advisor

acres.......

Acres in Millions   TotalTotal of 4 vs % of
 CornWheatSoyaCottonCorn/Soyathese 4TotalTotal
200678.357.375.515.3153.8226.4315.70.71725
200793.560.564.710.8158.2229.5320.40.71636
200886.063.175.79.5161.7234.3324.80.72132
200986.459.277.59.2163.9232.3319.30.72764
201088.253.677.411.0165.6230.2316.70.72687
201191.954.475.014.7166.9236.0315.00.74921
2012 MT guess94.056.573.013.5167.0237.0320.00.74063
1996**79.575.664.214.7143.7234.0334.0

0.70060

 

 

 Illinois 
 CornSoyaRatioCorn/SoyaCorn YieldState/US
200311.210.38.03571421.51641.1533052
200411.759.9515.3191521.71801.1221945
200512.19.521.487621.61430.9668695
200611.310.110.6194721.41631.093226
200713.28.337.1212121.51751.1612475
200812.19.223.9669421.31791.1630929
2009129.421.6666721.41741.0564663
201012.69.127.7777821.71571.0274869
201112.68.929.3650821.51571.0665761
       
       
 Indiana 
 CornSoyaRatioCorn/SoyaCorn YieldState/US
20035.65.452.67857111.051461.0267229
20045.75.552.63157911.251681.0473815
20055.95.48.47457611.31541.0412441
20065.55.7-3.6363611.21571.0529846
20076.54.826.1538511.31541.0218978
20085.75.454.38596511.151601.0396361
20095.65.452.67857111.051711.0382514
20105.95.359.32203411.251571.0274869
20115.95.310.1694911.21460.9918478
       
       
 Iowa 
 CornSoyaRatioCorn/SoyaCorn YieldState/US
200312.310.613.8211422.91571.1040788
200412.710.219.6850422.91811.1284289
200512.810.121.0937522.91731.1697093
200612.610.1519.4444422.751661.1133467
200714.28.6539.0845122.851711.1347047
200813.39.7526.6917323.051711.1111111
200913.69.629.4117623.21821.1050395
201013.49.826.8656723.21651.0798429
201114.19.3533.6879423.451721.1684783
       
       
 Minnesota 
 CornSoyaRatioCorn/SoyaCorn YieldState/US
20037.27.5-4.1666714.71461.0267229
20047.57.32.66666714.81590.9912718
20057.36.95.47945214.21741.1764706
20067.37.35-0.6849314.651611.0798122
20078.46.3524.4047614.751460.9688122
20087.77.058.44155814.751641.065627
20097.67.25.26315814.81741.0564663
20107.77.43.89610415.11771.158377
20118.17.112.3456815.21561.0597826
       
       
 Nebraska 
 CornSoyaRatioCorn/SoyaCorn YieldState/US
20038.14.5543.8271612.651461.0267229
20048.254.841.8181813.051661.0349127
20058.54.744.7058813.21541.0412441
20068.15.0537.6543213.151521.01945
20079.43.8758.8297913.271601.061712
20088.84.944.3181813.71631.0591293
20099.154.847.5409813.951781.0807529
20109.155.1543.7158514.31661.0863874
20119.854.950.2538114.751601.0869565

 

Acres are a guess at this point, but if any of you followed my acres last year, you heard me use the numbers of 166M of corn and soya combined and 236M of all four in the chart.........well those held true, especially when you consider the USDA used a factor of 90.8 instead of 92 calculating harvested acres, thus using a factor of 92 we actually planted 90.8M instead of 91.9M.......

 

Take a look 2007 and compare it to 2011 in the state charts.........pay attention to acres and the ratio.........nat avg in 2007 was 150ish.........then look at 2008 and compare to the 2007 and 2011..........nat avg in 2008 was around 154ish..........then think about 2012...........

 

I do not think we go over 94M on corn, but its a target...........it could be as low as 93M............soya are going to suffer and likely a flux crop...........72-73M.............wheat is up in the air too, it could actually increase to 57-58M...........cotton likely in that mid to upper 13M range...........

 

I think you have to look at total production for corn...........with this many acres we could be lucky to punch a 13.3B crop and could be a sub 13B crop again..........which goes back to my point from many discussions............its about total capacity and increasing acres of corn does not mean more bushels when you factor in fringe acres and COC..........then you are taking away capacity of other grains that might actually be more efficient on those acres thus pulling the efficacy of the whole system down...........

 

 

0 Kudos
11 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: acres.......

Your info makes a case for revising RFS2

0 Kudos
Senior Advisor

Re: acres.......

do you believe my info, you have commented a few times over the past year or so..................

 

if so, would you revise the RFS2 based on its wholistic gallon numbers, or just those derived from corn..........

 

what about domestic versus world.............we still overproduce..........why not keep using it............

 

final thought, and you have heard me make this comment before...........but ethanol has forced us to understand our production efficiencies and capacities both domestically and globablly............on a domestic stage it happens pretty fast because of our infastructure and technology.............on the world stage its much slower because of a lack in government latitude, infastructure, and technology............

 

I doubt in my lifetime I will see the effects of complete resource depletion............however I still feel like the next several decades even next century will be marked by a resource war.............the US has some of the youngest and riches soils in the world, water is not too shabby either, and we have untapped mineral/oil/nat gas that sounds very impressive.............so all that being said, we have a choice to make............do we as a country now pull back on our own resources (soil, water, minerals/oil/nat gas) and let the rest of the world "mine" theirs down............or do we go full bore.............

 

Part of me says go full bore and capatilize on our resources, but thats a short term view.............the other part of me says we need to hunker down if not for our currect but future generations.............some days it seems like the world is spinning way too fast............

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: acres.......

mandates with no escape clause will eventually be the undoing of the corn based ethanol biz......the industry has had two golden ages...first, when corn usage went from 1.5 to 5 billion corn per year....then again last year with big exports and $7-8 corn.....eventually Brazil will get the upper hand on production and will be the low cost producer and turn into a major exporter of ethanol again....

 

the longer it takes to fix the US corn supply, the more incentive we give the rest of the world to increase production

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: acres.......

MT, I would like nothing better than to just use our own oil.  Let the rest of the world deal with those folks in the middle east.

 

Ray, what's wrong with the corn supply?  We seem to have enough.

0 Kudos
Veteran Contributor

Re: acres.......

Ray....what in the numbers make you say that? I do not see your point....please educate me.

0 Kudos
Senior Advisor

Re: acres.......

so you are saying we need to bring the price of corn down, by creating supply some how, to maintain ethanol??????????

 

not sure how that works............COG for any producer or country has little to do with current supply price...........if Brazil was the lower COG producer then they would bury the US...........SA soils are worn and weak, infastructure is also worn and weak.........it takes a lot of money to keep at a sprint pace with worn and weak, even with higher prices..............and in those countries it takes a long time of high prices to get enough inflow to work on infastructure...........soil doesn't really matter, they can only throw so much at that stuff, before its cost prohibitive...........

 

you might just get your wish though, at least short term............everyone thinks we are going to plant our way to a hill of corn..........I can tell you right now, if corn goes to $4 there is going to be a lot of pain and it will be the start of the end for some, much like ILFF...........that Lakin 3300 acres that went up for cash rent auction a week or so ago in IA, averaged $487.48/acre/year across all of it...........two year lease I believe.........and some of the ground already had fert and tillage and the buyer had to pay a handsome fee against that too boot................it takes $5 corn and decent yields to pull it out flat.............course land would get real cheap again, and a bet a bunch would come up for sales, so that might be enjoyable, for those that have cash setting around............

 

to me its not even a question or consideration...........if we pull the plug and flex ethanol, its all over...........price of corn will never respond the same again until we reach a raw demand point that ethanol used to be at...........because all the experts will know if things get tight, short the market because ethanol will be flexed............

 

I guess part of me is sick and tired of the american farmer getting hosed............when commodities are cheap, they are told to deal with it, and heres some chump change to keep going.............when commodities are high, they are the devil and making money hand over fist on the backs of "hard working americans"............its total BS............and then to top it off they ("hard working americans") piss and moan and protest about how its produced with pesticides and fertilizers and GMO's...........yet they will pay twice for "organic" even though most is not "organic"..........but turn around and talk down on $7 corn...............you can see I don't have much sympathy, maybe $12 corn is the answer???????????

 

EDIT:  HECK, maybe thats the answer right there...........take corn to $20 and tell em its "organic"...........wouldn't need the ethanol industry either...........makes sense............ 

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: acres.......

" HECK, maybe thats the answer right there...........take corn to $20 and tell em its "organic"...........wouldn't need the ethanol industry either...........makes sense............ "

 

I wish you hadn't said that MT.   I don't like it when others misrepresent their products

0 Kudos
Senior Advisor

Re: acres.......

seriously..........read between the lines..........

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: acres.......

Atually with declining fuel use, this could make a stronger case for changing the RFS2 .   Auto racing has been using 15% ethanol with a power boost to engines, maybe it is time we looked at this for the rest of consumers also.    We should give the consumer a chance to decide at the pump, I personally want to see it.   I also don't believe we will run out of corn this year, the next or any year.  800 million carryover this year, predictions up to 2 billion by next fall with normal weather.  World wheat carryover at record levels, no, we are not going to run out of feedgrains.  If worldwide infrastructure improved, prices would decline to efficiencies in transportation.   Brazil and the US with all the infrastructure needs, could go into a building phase for 10 years and not get all that needs to be done..  Maybe capital needs to be invested in projects that involve jobs and not just strokes on a CME board.  I see opportunity for 15% ethanol and I see great opportunity for this country and also Brazil, China and others.

0 Kudos